Friday, May 31, 2013

More Severe Weather and Flooding Likely


3PM Friday Update.... It still looks like it's going to get active once again.  Channel 7 storm chaser, Michael Hook (the WeatherNinja), is chasing in Oklahoma today.  Watch is live stream below.  Also below are other storm chasers out there.  Click on their car and watch storms LIVE.



Before I get into the severe weather and flooding threat, please get your entries into the 2013 Arkansas Weather Blog summer contest.  Scroll down a little and you will see the post with all the details.  You have until 9PM Friday night to get them in.  We have great prizes including a $100 gas card.  Good luck.

We're going to get a little break today, but instability values should increase this afternoon as sunshine emerges.  There's a ton of moisture in place as well.  Storms that do develop will have the capability to produce very heavy rainfall and flooding.  The ground is already saturated so it will not take much wind to topple trees.  Some locations across western Arkansas have recorded 5-10 inches of rain.

There's a slight risk for severe weather later today for much of the northwestern half of the state.  I expect a few storms to develop in the unstable environment.  A more organized area of thunderstorms will develop in Oklahoma this afternoon.  That will edge into northern and western Arkansas tonight.  Some of these could be severe and produce torrential rainfall.  A front will start to push into the state Saturday.  With daytime heating, the storms should intensify and develop further.  Most of the state is in a slight risk for severe weather, but I'm really going to focus on the southeastern half of the state.  Wind, hail, and even isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Much drier and cooler air will move in Sunday.

I have hi res maps below showing you simulated radar.  Let me say now, it will NOT be perfect.   There are left over boundaries from yesterday's storms which could be the focus for more storm development.  These small scale boundaries are tough for the models to key in on.

10 PM Friday shows storms over western and some storms moving into Northwest Arkansas.  Any of these could be severe with heavy rainfall as well.

By 7AM Saturday, the area of rain and storms is located across the northern half of the state.  IF, and I do mean IF this verifies, the southern half of the state is rain free and could become very unstable.

By 4PM, Storms are intensifying over southern and eastern Arkansas.  Remember, this will NOT be perfect.
By 10 PM Saturday, strong to severe thunderstorms will be in SE Arkansas and getting ready to exit.
Most of the NW 1/2 of the state has a slight risk for severe weather later Friday.  More organized severe weather is expected across OK into extreme NW Arkansas in the moderate risk.
As the front moves in Saturday, most of the state has a slight risk for severe weather.  The main threats will be wind and hail, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you so much for taking time to make these weather blogs so we can all see what is predicted. I really appricate it and I always look forward to your weather blogs!

Anonymous said...

Todd, that cell that came near the Gravel Ridge area not serious enough to warrant the activation of the warning sirens? I live in the Gravel Ridge area of Sherwood, some say the Sherwood sirens went off and others are saying they never heard it. I always hear ours but didn't last night. Thank goodness we didn't get hit but thanks to the Ch7 weather team and WeatherCall7 we were ready just in case but was just wondering if there was a problem with the sirens or if the cell just didn't meet the requirements for the sirens to be activated. Thanks for the great work!

NOAA Winter Guidance