Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Tracking Tuesday Trouble


9:30 AM Tuesday Video Update....


I have been reviewing the data this Tuesday morning and I still think severe weather will be possible this afternoon with southwest Arkansas seeing the worst of it.  That does NOT mean the rest of the state is in the clear.    As I always say, we can look at the data over and over and overMother Nature will do what she wants to do.  As much as we educate ourselves and study this stuff, there's someone else in control!

The morning rain and thunderstorm activity is a good thing and hopefully clouds will stick around.  This will limit the instability needed for big time thunderstorms.  However, if sun breaks out, things could get rough.  The focus for much of the thunderstorm activity later in the morning will be out in Oklahoma, then it should shift into Arkansas this afternoon.  It will form into a clusters of storms and move to the east-southeast and affect western, portions of central, and southwestern Arkansas.  Again, that's where I think the worst of this will be, but other areas will need to keep an eye to the sky as well.  We will all need to watch for the potential for some heavy rain as well.  2-4 inches will be quite possible.

Here are a few maps from the Storm Prediction Center.  Later this morning, I'll post some hi res data for you.  This is my day off from work and I have a ton of stuff going on this morning so check back and I'll have more.

Most of the state is under a slight risk for severe weather, but the moderate risk is for southwest Arkansas into TX and LA.

Most of the state has at least a 5% chance for seeing a tornado within 25 miles of any given point.  The highest threat is across the moderate risk area in the southwest with a 10% chance for a tornado within 25 miles of any given point.
There's a 30% chance for severe winds within 25 miles of any given point with a 45% chance across the southwest.
As far as severe hail (1'' or greater).  There's a 30% chance within 25 miles of any given point for much of AR with a 45% chance across the southwest and west.

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