Thursday, August 22, 2013

It's Large and In Charge



Total number of degrees at Little Rock as of August 21st...7392

There's no doubt we are stuck in a weather rut as a ridge of high pressure is "large and in charge" of our weather.  I'll get more into that in just a little bit, but first, the stagnant pattern sheds light on where the 2013 summer contest could go.  All of the following is pure speculation.  As of Wednesday, the total number of degrees this summer is 7392.  If we assume it will be 94 degrees until the end of the month, the final number COULD be 8332.  Remember, we are using "Price Is Right" rules.  Whoever is closest without going over wins. This would put Linda Bissell in the drivers seat to win.  Her guess was 8327 and That's CLOSE!

Now back to the ridge of high pressure that should dominate our weather through the end of the month and possibly beyond.  If this ridge set up earlier this summer, I think we would be talking about triple digit heat.  However, due to recent rain across the north and the fact it's late summer, the chance of hitting 100 is low.  I'm not saying it won't happen.  With all the humidity in the air, the heat index will get close to 100 degrees each afternoon.  I have seen model data which indicates the ridge could go right into the first week of September.  This means the first Razorback game of the season will be hot and Labor Day weekend will likely be hot as well.

This is the upper level pattern late Saturday.  The ridge will keep the center portion of the country dry and hot.  The chance for any rainfall will be less than 20 percent through the end of the month.

The European model valid late Saturday August 31st shows the high pressure center located over the mid south.  At 500 mb, you can see the black circle through Arkansas into the Ohio River Valley back to the Gulf coast.  This means it stays hot and humid with little chance for rain.
It doesn't get any better in the 8-14 day time period.  Much of the country will likely experience above average temperatures.  That average high during this time period is around 90 degrees.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hopefully this can all be made up for with a massive cold front being the light at the end of this dark, hot tunnel!

NOAA Winter Guidance