Sunday, August 11, 2013

The Forecast... HAPPY, HAPPY, HAPPY


It's kinda ironic the season premiere of "Duck Dynasty" is Wednesday night and our cooler and drier air will be working in at the same time making us "Happy, Happy, Happy."  Yes, I'm addicted to the show.  I can't decide who I like the best, Si or Jase?  They're all great, but those guys have me laughing all the time, Jack.

Back to the weather.  Getting to the nice weather will be a bumpy ride for two reasons.  The first and biggest threat is flooding and the second is gusty winds.  Northern Arkansas is saturated because of heavy rain over the past couple of weeks.  Some places have seen almost 10'' and maybe even more than that.  Here are some incredible statistics from the National Weather Service twitter feed.  I highly encourage you "follow" them.

  • Posted on the 9th. "At Harrison, YTD rainfall is 31.23. This is 1.70 inches more than what fell during the entire year of 2012!"
  • Posted on the 9th. "At Harrison, the 3.09 in. rain that fell yesterday made it the wettest Aug. day since 8/6/1999 and 5th wettest for the month over all." 
  • "As of 8/8, 6.63 in. rain this month. at Mammoth Spring. 10th wettest Aug. so far. Wettest was 14.53/1915. Records since 1904."
  • Posted on the 10th. " 0.67 in. of rain so far today at Harrison. 6.72 for the month, making it the wettest Aug. since 1982, 9th wettest on record."
  • Mammoth Spring rainfall this month is 7.76, making it the wettest Aug. since 1940 and 5th wettest on record. Records since 1904. 
Doppler radar estimates 5-10 inches of rain has fallen across northern Arkansas with lesser amounts south.
Getting to the cooler air will require more scattered thunderstorms Monday and possibly more widespread areas of rain and storms Tuesday.  This will create a situation  where flash flooding will be possible, especially across super saturated areas of northern Arkansas.  This really is an amazing pattern.  I have never seen an August where we get so much rain NOT from a tropical system.

The reward for this bumpy ride will be the middle to end of the week.  I think it's entirely possible for northern Arkansas NOT to get out of the 70s for highs with 80s for everyone else.  Overnight lows will be comfortable and in the 50s and 60s.  That's window weather!

This is the simulated radar from the hi res NAM.  Don't take this literally.  I just wanted to point out there will be scattered showers and storms late Monday.  This is valid at 7PM.
There could be more rain late Monday night into Tuesday morning according to this hi res data.  More rain will be possible Wednesday then the front will move through.
You may need to enlarge this to read it.  This is the European model valid Thursday at 7PM.  This shows you what this model thinks the maximum temperature will be between 1PM and 7PM.  It says 80 in central Arkansas and 70s up north with lower humidity. WOW!!! IF THIS VERIFIES! HAPPY, HAPPY, HAPPY
And Friday morning, how about lows in the 50s across the north and mow to mid 60s elsewhere!  AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!
But wait, there's MORE.  NOAA thinks there's a good chance for well below average temperatures in the 6-10 day time period.
AND THERE'S MORE!  The 8-14 day time period looks below average as well.  The summer of 2013 will go down as cooler than average and we are winding it down quickly.  Can't wait for fall and football!  Happy, Happy, Happy.

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