Thursday, September 19, 2013

MUCH Needed Rain and A Fall-Tastic Weekend

With the exception of a few isolated showers and storms, the weather has been very quiet lately.  However, it looks like it's about to become active again as a front brings the best chance for rain we have seen in more than a month.

There are actually 3 players which will contribute to possible significant rainfall amounts:  Pacific moisture from Hurricane Manuel, Gulf Moisture, and a strong front.  All this should clear Arkansas for one of the best weekends we have had in a long time.  Maybe better than last weekend.  That might be tough to accomplish, but it's on the table. 

The heaviest rainfall should target the worst areas affected by the drought, southern Arkansas.  I have compiled a bunch of maps below explaining the situation.

Here's the set up.  Two areas of moisture will get drawn northward towards the front.  This should bring the most significant rainfall to eastern Texas, northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Friday.

The newest "Drought Monitor" released Thursday morning shows the extreme drought has expanded across the south.  This rainfall will target that area of the state.  While it won't solve the drought problems, it will help put a dent in it.
The Weather Prediction Center has much of the state receiving 1'' or more.  Up to 2'' across the far south can be expected.  Where the heavier thunderstorms develop, higher amounts will be possible.  Also, if there are any storms "training" over the same area, that could enhance the rainfall amounts as well.

Simulated radar isn't perfect, but I want to show you the hi res NAM.  This is valid at 7AM Friday.  Rain will be possible across most locations, but the best chance will be across western and northwestern Arkansas.
By 1PM, rainfall continues across much of the state, except the northwestern areas.
By 7PM, the rain showers will continue across the southeast half of the state, but it will be ending from northwest to southeast.
Not only is the rain good news for areas of southern Arkansas in a severe drought and a high wildfire danger, the weekend looks great.  Behind the front, cool and dry air will make this weekend INCREDIBLE.  Look for highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with overnight lows in the 50s.  ENJOY!!!!

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NOAA Winter Guidance