I have no changes to the previous post in regards to the Wednesday/Thursday system. The primary weather hazard will be heavy rain and therefore flooding will be an issue. While not in effect at the time I write this post, I expect flash flood watches to be issued for western and southwestern Arkansas.
The other threat will be severe weather. This should not be taken lightly even though at this time it doesn't look like an outbreak. As discussed early yesterday morning, the timing of this system is not favorable for widespread severe weather. The activity may reach severe limits to our west Wednesday afternoon, but as it pulls into the state Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the instability levels will be lower. Once we get into the daylight hours, and thus some heating on Thursday, the severe threat will ramp up once again, but the main effect will be near the Mississippi River eastward. Any changes to the timing of this system could mean more severe weather here, but at this time, the risk is on the low end. At least a few severe storms will be possible so stay up to date on that!
After reviewing all the latest data Tuesday morning, I still think Halloween morning will be very wet, but there's still a very good chance rain will be out of here by the late afternoon and early evening.
The superior European model handled this situation the best and I'm going to use it again for next week. We have another system coming in next Tuesday/Wednesday which looks very similar. Heavy rain will be a threat again and we'll have to watch for the possibility for some severe weather. Remember, if this next system comes to fruition, the ground will be very saturated from the Halloween storm. The flooding potential COULD actually be higher.
|From 1AM Thursday to 7AM, the heavy rain is over north central Arkansas to southwestern sections.|
|From 7AM to 1PM Halloween, there's no way of getting around it... IT'S WET!!!!! Heavy rain will overspread much of the state including the metro. The severe weather threat is low, but it's still present. This is mostly torrential rainfall.|
|From 7PM Halloween into 1AM Friday, we're dry according to the Euro!|
|Now a sneak peak into next week. This is valid next Wednesday morning. There's a surface low over northern WI with the front extending south right through IL and into AR. Heavy rainfall is lining up with it.|
|The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southeast half of the state in a slight risk for sever weather Thursday. This includes areas from Texarkana to Little Rock up to Jonesboro eastward.|