Tuesday, October 22, 2013
Big Storm System Next Week? It's Possible
While this week will feature a few cold front bringing in shots of cool air, all eyes are on what will happen next week. I'm really paying attention to the Tuesday-Thursday time period... October 29-31st. The GFS has been fairly consistent dropping a strong front through the state and the Euro shows a boundary as well. However, the biggest question that has to be answered pertains to a strong area of low pressure coming out of the southwestern United States. The GFS pulls this energy out and develops a significant storm system over the southern plains. This would result in heavy rain/thunderstorms. The latest run of the Euro shows this piece of energy hanging back over the western United States allowing a front to come through rather harmlessly. It should be noted previous runs of the Euro looked similar to the GFS.
Check out these maps below explaining the situation. Remember, this is long term stuff so it's likely to change.
In summary, when you're dealing with the long range, there's going to be differences between the modeling. Many times, both are wrong and it's more of a compromise between the two. As long as one of the long range models shows this possibility, it must be watched, especially if the upper low gets involved. We are in our secondary severe weather season so that's on the table. I'm not calling for severe weather at this time, but it's worth watching due to climatology. One more thought... Look back at the forecast a week in advance for the Race For The Cure. The GFS was grossly off! The Euro was wrong too, but was much closer to the idea of some rainfall early that morning. Stay tuned.
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