Friday, October 25, 2013

Halloween Forecast... "Trick Or Treat"

The forecast next week is still muddy and I don't expect a clearer picture until this weekend.  It's literally "Trick-Or-Treat".  The European model is the "Trick" and the GFS is the "Treat"

There's little doubt our next significant weather maker next week will produce rain and thunderstorms.  The track, intensity, and timing are all debatable.

This post will be brief as I'm just going to show you what the two main long range models show for Halloween and that alone will show you the forecasting headache I have.  At the bottom is a summary and what I think is more likely to happen.

Here's the European model valid on Halloween at 7PM.  You can clearly see the surface low.  That's the black circle over northern IA and southern MN.  A cold front extends south of that through eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma.  All those red and yellow blobs indicate rainfall amounts over the previous 6 hours.  The Euro is definitely wet with at least 1-2 inches of rain during the day on Halloween.  It's much slower with the progression of the storm system when compared to the GFS.
What's a 1000 miles between friends?  That's the difference between the two models.  The GFS valid at the same time shows the surface low over western New York with the trailing front through the middle Atlantic into GA and AL.  It's DRY here.  So this solution is much faster and what all the kiddos (and parents) want.
In summary... what will happen?  Based on previous model performance, I'm going to have to side with the wetter European solution.  At least something closer to that.  It may be a compromise, but when all is said and done, I think we'll look back and say the Euro was much closer.  Why?  Let's go back to the "Race For The Cure" forecast and you can go look at the post.  The GFS was too far to the east with the trough.  It kept it dry while the Euro held on to more troughing west which brought those overnight showers just prior to the race.  The Euro was closer.  While no two situations are the same, the Euro had and usually always has a better track record.  I'll keep you updated and hope the GFS gets it right this time!

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