Thursday, November 07, 2013

Big Chill Possible Next Week


Noon Thursday update...  I caused a little stir on twitter this morning with 10 day snowfall amounts from the European model.  As much as I like the Euro, I think it's "out to lunch".   It indicated record breaking snow in the long range for much of the state.  I want to be crystal clear...  I DO !NOT! THINK THE 00Z RUN OF THE EUROPEAN MODEL WILL VERIFY.  However, the Euro may be trying to tell us something.  I do think a turn to some colder weather may be down the road as indicated in the post below.  I also would not rule out some flakes somewhere.  It is something to watch. 

I really want to focus on the potential for some chilly air.  The morning run of the GFS does indicate high temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s by the middle to end of next week with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.  Our first official freeze of the season is on the table in central Arkansas. 

Just for fun, here are the November snowfall records in Little Rock.

Top 10 snowiest Novembers in Little Rock
1) 1880 - 9.4''
2) 1929 - 4.9''
3) 1971 - 4.8''
4) 1892 - 2.5''
5) 1980 - 1.8''  (I ACTUALLY REMEMBER THIS ONE AROUND THANKSGIVING)
6) 1891 - 1.5''
7) 1976 - 1.0''
8) 1952 - 1.0''
9) 1957 - 0.8''
10) 1951 - 0.4''

Top 10 snowiest November days in Little Rock
1)  17 Nov 1880 - 9.4''
2)  23 Nov 1971 - 4.4''
3)  22 Nov 1929 - 2.9''
4)  9  Nov  1892 - 2.5''
5) 21 Nov 1929 - 2.0''
6) 26 Nov 1980 - 1.8''
7) 22 Nov 1891 - 1.5''
8) 14 Nov 1976 - 1.0''
9) 28 Nov 1952 - 1.0''
10)  22 Nov 1957 - 0.8''

One more thing, I have all the prizes together for the 2013-2014 WINTER WEATHER CONTEST.  I'll launch it soon so get ready to send in your entries.

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I often look at NOAA's 6-10 day outlook and their 8-14 day outlook as well.  Their 6-10 day is in serious trouble if the European model is correct.  We're talking about the middle to end of next week, November 12-16.  If the European model is correct, we could be looking at our first frost and/or freeze.  The average date for the first frost is November 3rd so we're a little past that even though some outlying areas have already seen frost.  The average date for the first freeze is the 14th.  That could be close to schedule.

A few days ago, the Euro came up with some weird solution in the long range developing a big trough of low pressure over the eastern United States.  This seemed odd and very unlikely to verify, but it was trying to tell us something.  It's now developing the trough further to the west and delivering a chilly Canadian air mass deep into the heart of Dixie.  The front could come through with a few showers, but nothing too heavy.  Check out the maps below. 

This is Wednesday's 6-10 day outlook from NOAA.  This is valid from November 12th to the 16th (next Tuesday to Saturday).  They are saying there is a high likelihood of above average temperatures from Arkansas into the desert southwest.  If the current models are correct, this will have a tough time verifying over Arkansas.  It will be interesting to see what later model runs say and if this changes.
I know this is tough to read, but I'll tell you what it says.  You can probably enlarge this if you want.  These maps come from weatherbell.com, a great subscription based site for modeling.  This is the overnight run of the Euro valid next Wednesday at 6PM.  The cold air is clearly seen in the blue shaded colors and it's well south of Arkansas at this point.  This is showing us maximum temperatures from noon Wednesday to 6 PM Wednesday.  In other words, the afternoon high temperature.  IT'S ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S.  THIS IS WAYYYYYYYYYY BELOW AVERAGE
This is valid at 6AM the following morning (Thursday).  The white line is the surface 32 degree line and it's through most of central and northern Arkansas.  IF THIS VERIFIES, it would be the first official freeze of the season for many.
Again, this is from the Euro showing us max temperatures Thursday afternoon. Only in the low to mid 40s.  Not only is the Euro seeing cold air, but there are clouds around too.  Even precipitation, but I'm not going there yet and I'm NOT buying into it at this point.  STAY TUNED.
In summary, like I said, it will be interesting to see what this afternoon's NOAA 6-10 day outlook reveals.  I think there is an increasingly high likelihood of well below average temperatures.  Let's just wait and see what later model runs tell us and I'll have more soon.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

SNOW!!! Gotta get bread and milk!

Anonymous said...

Interesting that 1880 was Little Rock's snowiest November. If you Google "Winter of 1880" apparently this was one of the worst winters across the nation -- it inspired Laura Ingalls Wilder's Little House books. Interesting.

Anonymous said...

I remember that 1980 snow too, Todd. My parents have pictures of me making a snowman and then in the kitchen with mom and I in our matching aprons doing the turkey. (I was in 1st grade). I vividly remember the snow because we'd just moved here in January of 1980 and came from a very snowy climate in the fall/winter and even into spring to Arkansas' much milder climate.

Octo-BRRR