More Winter Weather and It's Not Even Winter Yet

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First of all, thanks so much for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog for your in-depth weather information.  I had a chanc e to look at the numbers and this past weather event shattered records for blog hits.  I can't thank you enough.  This blog is doing better than it ever has and I can't thank you enough for making it possible.

The SCHOOL:CON INDEX was a huge success.  As I have said, I will not issue one every single time there's winter weather.  I'll only do so when there's a high degree of confidence in my forecast.

I think our forecast worked out fairly well last Friday.  Our best case scenario panned out with sleet being the primary precipitation type in central Arkansas.  However, portions of western Arkansas were not so lucky with heavy amounts of freezing rain.

Now onto the brutally cold temperatures I talked about last week.  While it will be very cold, the models were probably wayyyyyy to cold.  At one time, the Euro showed lows well below zero Tuesday and Wednesday morning.  It's looking more likely single digits and teens will be more common by Wednesday morning instead.  For maximum cooling to take place, you need 3 things: snow cover, a calm wind, and clear skies.  I think we'll have some cloud cover and maybe some wind to keep temperatures from really dropping like a rock.

As far as precipitation chances the next few days, we must watch carefully Monday night into Tuesday morning.  A quick moving disturbance may produce a few show showers across northern Arkansas.  Elsewhere, some light sleet or light snow will be possible, but the chances are very much on the low side.

By the end of the week, another system will move through the region and it will have more moisture to work with.  I'm a little concerned about the icing potential for a few hours Friday morning, especially over snow covered areas of northern Arkansas.  The snow pack will help keep temperatures down while the moisture increases late this week.  For the rest of the state, there could be a little light sleet or light freezing rain Friday morning, but a quick transition to plain rain should occur.  This is several days away and can change and I'll watch it for you.

Here are model maps from weatherbell.com

This is the Euro valid Friday at noon.  The precipitation is over the previous 6 hours.  Look at the dark blue line running through northern Arkansas.  That's the freezing line and you can see some of the moisture falling up there.  That poses at least some concern.

By late  Friday, there are still a few pockets below freezing up north, especially across the higher elevations.  The rest of the state has a cold rain.