Winter Storm Looking Likely

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1:15 PM Monday update... I just wanted to update everyone with the newest model data.  The purpose is NOT to cause alarm, but raise awareness.  We really need everyone to pay attention to the forecast.  By no means is anything etched in stone.  This forecast can and will likely change.  I have no doubt the cold is coming, but precipitation types and placement can't be pinned down at this point.  

I really don't know where to begin?  This week is going to be complex, yet simple (forecasting) if we just follow what has happened in the past in these situations.  As I always tell you, this blog is not our official forecast.  I want to share with everyone what goes into making a forecast and discuss the possibilities. 

As I have said over the years and I'll always continue to say, arctic air is stronger and faster than what the models predict.  I can't think of a time when this isn't true.  A classic example is last Christmas.  The ice during the day was something I discussed here a couple days prior to the event.  That batch of arctic air... stronger and faster.  

Many of you know how much I LOVE snow, I DO NOT like ice.  I think our best case scanario in central Arkansas is sleet.  That does not adhere to power lines.  Freezing rain scares the you know what out of me.  That coats everything with a heavy layer of ice on trees, power lines, etc.  This is one of the big questions that STILL has to be answered for later this week... PRECIPITATION TYPE AND WHERE THIS SETS UP.  Confidence is very high that very cold air is coming and confidence is growing we'll have a few rounds of wintry weather.  I would even go far enough this far out to say winter storm watches will be issued.  As I said, the precipitation type is in question.  This is a shallow layer of cold air.  The deeper, the better.  This allows precip to fall as sleet and/or snow.  Knowing exactly where these precip boundaries set up will be impossible to predict this far out.  

I want to show you the European model this morning from weatherbell.com.  It has been remarkably consistent and actually shows where it thinks snow and ice is on the ground only by looking at temperature forecasts.  I'll explain below.

One more note to watch in all this.,,  Little Rock has not had an official temperature in the single digits since February of 1996.  That will have to be watched.  It is within the realm of possibilities by the beginning of next week.  Also, it's very possible many areas of the state will spend a few days below freezing.  This is the type of cold that can cause problems with pipes.  Think about that, pets and people!!!! Now onto the models

This is valid Thursday from noon to 6PM.  With ALL of these precipitation maps, it's showing you how much has fallen over the previous 6 hours.  The light blue line is the 35 degree line and the dark blue line is the freezing line.  By 6PM Thursday, it's COLD across much of the state.  HOWEVER, the subfreezing air is held up by the Ozarks.  That's very typical when dealing with shallow, cold air masses.  This is mainly sleet/freezing rain up there in the NW Thursday afternoon.

From 6PM to midnight Thursday, the freezing line is heading south and almost into the metro.  There's a heavy cold rain across the south.

From 6AM Friday to Noon Friday, this is where things get interesting in central and south Arkansas.  The freezing line is near Texarkana over to Warren up to Dumas.  Everyone north of it is cold enough for ice/snow.  Another wave of moisture should override that cold air and produce problems.

Fast forward to Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Another wave of moisture moves across the state and it could be heavy.  The freezing line is still across southern AR so most of this is frozen.  At this time, it's possible the cold air is deep enough for sleet/snow.

Now onto temperture forecasting.  This is valid at 6PM Thursday.  See the pinks covering up the Ozarks?  The model is doing a fantastic job seeing the terrain and bottling up the subfreezing air across far west central Arkansas into the Ozarks.  Remember, arctic air is shallow and the mountains there are tall enough to slow its progress south.  You can also clearly see the arctic boundary over LA into MS.

By Friday at noon, most of central and northern Arkansas is in the teens and 20s as that wave of additional moisture rides over the top.  Wind chill values are brutal at this point.

Now this is AMAZING in my weather geek opinion.  This is valid late Friday at 6PM.  The Euro actually sees where it thinks snow and ice is on the ground.  See the reds and purples in a band from eastern OK through the NW half of the state?  How do I know this just isn't cold air behind the front?  Look at SE Kansas.  It's warmer there than in Arkansas!  That would NOT make sense, UNLESS there's something frozen on the ground here.  Also, look at the River Valley near Clarksville.  See that area of somewhat warmer temperatures?  It's seeing less snow/ice cover there because the arctic air has a tough time getting there due to the mountains.  This is amazing stuff for a weather geek like me.  The model sees accumulating ice/snow all the way into the metro, but barely.  Will this and can this change?  ABSOLUTELY!

By Saturday morning, look at these lows!  Single digits north to teens and 20s central and south. BRRRRRRRRRRRRR.  Once again, you can see where the model thinks there is snow/ice cover.  There's even a swath through south Arkansas at this point.

By Tuesday morning, it's still COLD!  Lows in the single digits and teens across the state.  This cold air will have some "staying power"

In summary, PLEASE REMEMBER THIS BLOG IS NOT A FORECAST!!  We do base our forecasts on what the data tells us.  Here is what we do know... it's going to turn much colder with waves of moisture causing a wintry mix across the state.  Here's what still has to be answered: timing of each wave, precipitation type, and where it sets up exactly.

All I an say at this time is STAY TUNED.