This is something I alluded to last week when I saw the data and I never backed down or flip flopped my forecast. Many times when the arctic high retreats to the east, a return flow will set up. The warmer air will chase the cold air out, but during this transition, a period of wintry weather can be expected. I fully expect this to be a LIGHT event and it will be limited in duration. HOWEVER, as we all know, it does not take much icing to cause slick spots on the roads. All of the roads will be prone to some slick spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning due to the recent cold weather making the surface temperatures very cold. The transition to plain rain will occur during the morning from south to north as the warmer air works into the state.
Will I release a new "SCHOOL:CON" index? I have been asked this quite a bit. I'm very hesitant to do this since the duration of this event is limited. It COULD be one of those situations where schools delay their openings... COULD. I'll think about it and look at the new morning data and come to a decision. If you live in northern or western Arkansas, I would pay attention to those closings or delays since you will be in the target area for this event. Even central Arkansas may deal with a little ice too.
|This is our model "Futurecast" which is exclusive to Channel 7. Ignore the time stamp on this. It indicates around .1 to .2'' of ice. Not a huge amount at all, but again, it takes just a very little to cause slick spots and travel headaches.|
|During the onset of the precipitation, it could be snow flying just west and north of the metro, then it goes to freezing rain/sleet. The Ozarks up to the Missouri border could stay snow a little longer with some minor accumulations.|
|By midnight, the target area is western and northern AR as that area of the state will be the coldest with the highest amounts of moisture.|
|By 6AM, many areas could see light icing. Again, the duration of this will be short and the amounts will be light. Slick spots are likely though.|