Thursday, January 23, 2014

More Cold Coming and Maybe Some Moisture Too



As advertised here for more than a week, the cold is here and it's brutal!  However, what's coming Monday into Tuesday may be COLDER!  After that, moisture may FINALLY get into the state.  Before I get into that, I want you to watch this piece of video from my interview with weatherbell.com meteorologist, Joe Bastardi.  Joe has done a great job with forecasting this past fall and winter.  He specializes in long range forecasting with what will happen months down the road. I'm sure Joe is already doing research into the hurricane season into next winter by now. LOL.  Anyway, he sent out a tweet last week saying the economic impact of the coming cold would be very significant.  Just think about what has happened already (snow in the mid Atlantic, Ohio River Valley, into New England) and listen to what he has to say...

 

Now onto the weather for us.  I'm already looking at next Monday and Tuesday and the potential for winter weather later next week.  The next strong push of arctic air will bring colder wind chill values and colder temperatures.  The overnight run of the Euro shows the cold, but I don't think it's showing how cold it will actually become.  There could be a wave of moisture bringing a wintry mix to the state next Thursday and again the following weekend (Super Bowl weekend).  REMEMBER, FORECASTING THAT FAR OUT IS NOT PERFECT AND DON'T TAKE THIS MAPS LITERALLY! SPECIFICS CAN'T BE IRONED OUT AT THIS POINT!  

Wind chill values next Tuesday morning.  The white area is 0 or below.  I don't think this is cold enough.
Wind chill values again Wednesday morning of next week.  Again, I think there's potential for it to be even colder than this.
The European model valid next Tuesday at midnight shows the potential for some very light snow flurries, especially across western Arkansas.  Moisture is extremely limited, but the airmass may be cold enough to squeeze out whatever moisture is available in the form of a couple snowflakes.  Not a big deal at all.  At this point, the the bigger story is the cold and wind.
By next Thursday afternoon, the arctic high is retreating and there appears to be a wave of moisture the back side.  The blue dashed line is a good indicator of the rain/snow line.  HOWEVER, I think south of this line, some ice will be possible due to the low level arctic air. As I said above, DO NOT LOOK AT THIS FOR SPECIFICS.  The underlying message I want you to take away from this is that there's some moisture possible Thursday of next week.  Who gets what and how much can't be determined at this time.  Being 7 days away, it's quite possible this could be completely wrong.  
This is where things COULD get very interesting.  Late next Friday into Saturday another boundary is draped across southern AR.  Look at the black closed line over the northern plains.  That's another cold area of high pressure.  It looks like a wave moisture comes out and precipitation overruns the cold air at the surface.  The "540 line" is north of the state.  Where this eventually ends up is a BIG ?.  One might look at this and say "rain".  I would caution you.  With that high coming down, the low level cold air could be strong enough for icing across some portions of the state.  This is more than 7 days away and there's NO doubt this will change.  I'm putting this information out there for you because I want you to be aware of the possibilities later next week and to keep checking back.
Here are surface temperatures at that time from the Euro.  Notice the very sharp boundary over southern Arkansas with warm air south of it and very cold air north of it.  You may need to click to enlarge to see these numbers.  Again, where this boundary ends up is not exactly known at this time.  Look at the air north of the boundary at ground level.  Very close to freezing or below.  That's why I have icing concerns.  Stay tuned!

2 comments:

MsBrowntrout said...

I have just found this site and look forward to your comments every morning

Anonymous said...

I don't know why everyone's so depressed about the cold. If it were mild, the insects would be swarming around and they would be worse in the summer. The cold is a good thing, even if it's without snow, ice, or sleet. At least Todd appreciates the nice cold weather!

Octo-BRRR