Sunday, February 09, 2014

Snow or No

The data we use to forecast is just not showing any agreement and as a matter of fact, they are decreasing the amount of snow.  Is it right?  It could be.  By Monday morning, the data could indicate more moisture, but when you see the two main models we use in the short term come back with less moisture and indicates a different timing, you take notice.  The data is obviously having a difficult time resolving all the waves of energy coming off the Pacific into the United States so this forecast is not set in stone by any stretch.  As of Sunday night, the National Weather Service has a winter storm watch for 2-4 inches of snow mainly Monday night and we need to prepare for that.  However, we need to watch for any adjustments to the watch and amounts Monday morning.  Also, I want to remind you, there could be some light snow Monday morning central and north.  This should be very light and the best chance is up north.

You may need to click on this to enlarge.  This shows you the forecasting headaches we have!  This compares the morning run to the evening run of the GFS and NAM.  See why this is making me go bald?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The air here (NWA) in no way feels dry. It feels heavy with moisture. I think the whole state is in for snow. The NAM seems too distributed.

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