Friday, February 07, 2014

Winter Rolls On With More Snow Threats


12:30 PM Friday Update... I have a quick update with what I just saw on the new European model.  I still think the data is having issues resolving each piece of energy coming through.  However, I just wanted to tell you what it indicates.  The Monday system mainly affects northern Arkansas with wintry weather.  I'm not saying that's the only part of the state which will have it, but I'm just telling you what it says.  Also, in the discussion below, I mentioned the Wednesday system may be too far south according to the GFS.  Well, the new Euro brings precip well north into Arkansas and it's frozen.  Again, a lot can and will change as we fine tune this forecast.

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Want to know more about what's coming through this (Friday) evening?  This short video below goes in depth with timing and accumulations.  Below that are my thoughts on the snow chances next week.


 
Now onto next week.   To understand what next week could bring I think we need to go back and look at last weekend.  The modeling indicated some snow Thursday into Friday (right now) and a huge snow this upcoming weekend (Feb. 8th and 9th).  Instead, you see what's happening.  It appears to me these systems are coming out as small chunks of energy.  If you have watched my videos and read my blogs, I have been very hesitant about making a call on next week.  I questioned the timing, strength, and precipitation types.  Lo and behold the Friday morning run of the GFS comes out and shows a weaker system Monday and another Wednesday.  The Wednesday system looks to go south, but the Euro brings it further north.  So at this time, the system Wednesday has a bunch of questions as to the track.  With all this in mind, I hate changing forecasts based on 1 model run.  That's what I like to call "model hugging" and I only like that if it involves Christy Brinkley or Kathy Ireland.  LOL... I'm showing my age. Ok, I'm talking about WEATHER models now.

So after a somewhat nice weekend, I still think wintry weather is on the table Monday.  I don't like the idea the GFS shows Wednesday with the southern track.  I think some moisture can make it up here as the Euro shows.

The maps below are from weatherbell.com.  Remember, the red line is the freezing line.  It's showing you precip over the previous 6 hours.  Green is rain, blue is snow, purple is freezing rain, and orange is sleet.

Monday morning, the GFS indicates a wintry mix across the entire state.  Ice south, sleet/snow central, and snow north.  Since this is within 3 days, it has credibility.  I don't expect this to be a crippling storm, but one which will cause problems.

Between noon and 6PM Monday, the wintry weather continues with a Gulf of Mexico low and cold high pressure north pumping in that chilly air.  The back edge is coming into western Arkansas.

It's out of here by very early Tuesday morning.
Here's the GFS total snow through next Tuesday morning.  This is a little tricky so let me explain what you're looking at.  This is taking into account the snow Friday night.  The accumulation you see in southern Arkansas is mostly sleet and not snow.  That's assuming this one model run is correct.  What you need to take away from this is that the northern areas of the state could see an additional 2-4 inches IF THIS IS CORRECT.  The amounts in central Arkansas contain sleet and snow combined so it's tough to gauge the exact amount.
Now onto the Wednesday system.  The GFS is suppressing this to the south with an area of freezing rain over N. LA.  This is actually valid Wednesday morning at midnight.  With this being in the long range, I think there could be an error here.  This low COULD track further north bringing precip north into Arkansas... COULD.
Now look at the Euro for that same time period.   It does show the precip making it further north with much of the state below freezing.  However, whatever falls here would be LIGHT.
In summary... there are 3 more rounds of wintry weather possible.  1 looks likely Friday evening.  Another possible Monday, and another Wednesday.  The forecast for the Monday and Wednesday system will likely change as the models try to get a better handle on what to expect.  I'll keep you updated.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Winter isn't even over yet and I can already conclude that this is one great winter! I genuinely wish every winter would be like this. Hopefully that warm up next week will be brief.

Anonymous said...

I love how we keep getting more wintry systems tacked on to the end of the week. Things to look forward to!

NOAA Winter Guidance