Sunday, March 30, 2014

Significant Severe Weather Possible


The more I look at the situation later this week, the more I don't like it.  I'm going to go with the rock solid GFS.  Yep, you heard me correctly.  The GFS has really done a great job over the past few months.  The set up, as it looks Sunday, is nasty for Thursday.  Am I trying to hype this?  NO!  I'm trying to raise awareness.  The more people know bad weather is coming means less people get hurt.  The timing and exactly how this plays out can and still will change.  Let's say hypothetically the system speeds up and comes in Wednesday night, while severe weather would be possible, it would be less due to the lower instability levels.  The same could be said if it slows down and arrives Thursday night.  We really don't want this to come in at peak heating when instability levels are usually the highest.   Considering the set up, time of year, and climatology, we need to get everyone on the same page.  

There will be a chance for storms Wednesday, but I don't think this will be anything compared to Thursday.  After the Thursday round, we'll have to watch mainly southern Arkansas on Friday as the front moves through there.  

The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined most of Arkansas as an area they are watching for the possible severe weather.  At this time, I think it's safe to say hail, wind and tornadoes will all be possible in the region.  We'll get more specific with those threats as we get closer to the time period.  For instance, one section of the state may be favored for tornadoes while the other hail.  Like I said, we'll get more specific as we get closer to Thursday and the data gives us a higher degree of confidence.

By the way, for those of you joining twitter, welcome.  IT HAS 100% REACH UNLIKE FACEBOOK.  If you use facebook, from my understanding, the only way to make sure you get my updates is to turn on notifications or just go to the page itself.


This is a general good idea how the surface map will look Thursday afternoon.  We should be firmly entrenched in the warm sector with plenty of warmth and humidity.  This is the fuel for storms.  The surface low is over the Red River Valley of TX/OK.  This will move northeast and pass by Thursday night (according to the data Sunday).  This will drag that cold front through ending the severe weather threat.
This is CAPE or instability.  It's in the 3000 range which is very, very high and unstable.  Many times, in the long range, the models underestimate these levels so this really caught my eye.  This is reflecting all the warm and moist air in place in the warm sector.

By 7PM Thursday, look at all those 70s!  WARM!!!
Dewpoint temperatures at 7PM Thursday.  They are well into the 60s and lower 70s.  That's more than enough for severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined most of the state for the threat for severe weather. 

1 comment:

Ginger Di Zio said...

I hate spring. I bloody hate spring for this reason alone.

NOAA Winter Guidance