Saturday, April 26, 2014

Significant Sunday Severe Weather Likely



I really don't have much in the way of changes to my previous thinking.  When I looked at the data Friday morning, I told you I didn't like what I saw.  I still think there will be violent thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.  Many will produce severe wind and hail. Tornadoes will be a threat.

Look for a few early Sunday morning showers and storms.  Some of these could be severe with hail the main threat.  You can never rule out a tornado, but Sunday morning, that threat is low.  The main activity will develop later in the day.  We can only hope the morning showers and cloud cover can stick around and limit instability, but all signs indicate the atmosphere will have the ability to recharge throughout the day.  I fully expect tornado watches to blanket the state Sunday and it could be categorized as a "PDS".  You may hear that term Sunday.  That means, "Particularly Dangerous Situation."  The Storm Prediction Center only issues that when there's a high degree in confidence tornadoes will occur and some of those could be strong, long lived tornadoes.

As I have said on social media and on the air.  This is NOTHING to panic about.  This is a typical springtime storm system and we know they can be bad here in the south.  You can prepare.  Go over with your friends and family where to go if a tornado warning gets issued for your location.   I would also make sure you keep your phones charged and keep flash lights handy just in case your power goes out.

I'm going to use simulated radar from the hi res WRF.  I'll be completely honest, it's NOT perfect.  It does give us a good general idea as to the time the storms will begin and what radar COULD look like.  We'll see how well this performs.  Those maps below are from weatherbell.com

As of Saturday afternoon, the data continues to point to more severe weather Monday as the front slowly works into the state.   However, the main risk will be across the southeastern half of the state.  I can't even rule out a few hail producing storms Tuesday too.  It's going to quite a 3 day stretch so PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE.

Early morning showers and storms will be possible.  The WRF indicates the best chance will be across the SE around 6-9AM
PLEASE REMEMBER, THIS WILL NOT BE PERFECT.  The WRF indicates supercell thunderstorms developing over central and western AR by 5-6 PM Sunday.  Some of the data indicates this could initiate earlier.
The WRF at 10 PM Sunday shows numerous supercell storms from SW to north central Arkansas.  Again, we'll see how well this model performs.
BY 1AM Monday, it's still going with big storms from central into northern Arkansas.
Here's our storm impact graphic made Saturday morning.
The entire Channel 7 viewing area is under a moderate risk for severe weather Sunday.  Portions of this area may get upgraded to "high"
Flooding rainfall will be possible over the 3 day stretch.

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