Friday, May 16, 2014

From Record Cold to Typical "RiverSweat"




If you thought the past two Mays have seen some strange weather, you're right.  Remember last year we had below average temperatures and even SNOW across northwest Arkansas.  While we haven't seen any snow this year, temperatures are almost a degree and a half below average with several new record lows established. Also, all but 2 months over the past year have been below average.   However, there could be a burst of heat and humidity just in time for Riverfest and this could help trend our monthly average closer to "normal".  Whatever that is?  There's nothing normal about Arkansas weather in my opinion.

I know many eyes are on the Memorial Day weekend and what the weather will be like.  It's still about a week away and much can change.  I have noticed there COULD be a storm system to watch in the 8-10 day time frame so I'll be keeping an eye on that for you.

There are a couple maps I want to show below and they are from weatherbell.com.  First is the forecast temperature at 1PM Saturday afternoon (May 17th)  This one map really tells the weather story Saturday as a wave of low pressure dives south.  The target area for rain and therefore cooler temperatures will be central and northern Arkansas.  Notice how warm southern Arkansas will be Saturday due to the expected sunshine.

You may need to click to enlarge.  The expected clouds and rain early Saturday will hold temperatures into the 50s across northern Arkansas, but look at southern Arkansas.  Readings may be near 80!
Let's fast forward to next Friday, May 23rd.  A ridge of high pressure will help warm us up into the 90s with some humidity returning.  That's Riverfest weather!  Remember, a forecast this far out can change and I'll keep you updated.

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NOAA Winter Guidance