Wednesday, May 07, 2014

Severe Weather Season... What's Down The Road



It's really amazing what 1 storm can do.  Severe weather season was fairly quiet (with the exception of Camden) until April 27th.  There was one storm which changed it all and that's all it takes.  Now we're all looking for the light at the end of the tunnel and there is one.  It's important to remember severe weather can happen at anytime of the year, but our primary severe weather season typically winds down as we go into the end of May.  I do see a chance for some strong/severe storms late Thursday into early Friday.  While any chance for severe weather should be taken seriously, this doesn't look like the late April system.  As always, we'll watch it for you.  Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.  There's another system next week which could bring some strong storms, but again, it does not look like that horrible storm system the weekend of April 27th.  

After that, it takes us into the middle of May and even closer to the end of our primary severe weather season, but we're not out of the woods just yet.  Remember, last year on May 30th?  We had an outbreak of at least 14 tornadoes.  There have also been some notable tornadoes in June, but tornado outbreaks in June can be considered rare.  Some of you may remember a tornado hit Pine Bluff on June 1st, 1947 and it killed 35 people.

The second biggest tornado outbreak in Arkansas occurred on June 5th, 1916.  There were 34 tornadoes an a total of 87 fatalities.  Heber Springs was hardest hit with 20 fatalities that day.  You have to wonder if modern warning methods would have saved more lives that day.  In case you're wondering, the worst severe weather outbreak was January 21st 1999. 

While we tend to look at history for past outbreaks you should also consider this point.  The 5 tornadoes on April 27th were produced by one parent thunderstorm.  That's all it takes.  Would you consider it an outbreak?

On a personal note, I would like to ask all of you to keep my mom in your thoughts.  I'm writing this blog post from the hospital and I'll be here quite a bit over the next few days.  She broke her leg and will need surgery.  Yes, I'm a "momma's boy" and as you would expect, quite worried.  It seems like a simple fix: surgery and rehab, but you know there can always be complications.  She's resting comfortably as I type this.

3 year average from the Storm Prediction Center (nationally), indicates we're on the downward slide to the end of our primary severe weather season, but it can still be very active this month. 








6 comments:

Julia Greer said...

Thank you for keeping us up to date on what to expect. I am praying for your mother and I ask the same because we are going through the same thing. My mom broke her right hip in 5 places on last Thursday and had to have 3 rods put in from her hip to knee. We are in Springhill and to be honest they have been pretty good.

Anonymous said...

We are all Mama's boy in the end

Anonymous said...

I'm praying for your mom, Todd. You are ALWAYS there for Arkansas. We are here for you.

Anonymous said...

So praying for your Mom, may she recover very soon.

Dana Otterpohl said...

Praying for your mom!

Raj Patel said...

Todd, I saw your tweet at Joe Bastardi regarding his summer outlook. It's here http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-april-5-2014

NOAA Winter Guidance