Thursday, June 05, 2014

Let's Get Ready To Rumble

There will be no rest for the weary over the next several days.  The first of many thunderstorm complexes will affect the Channel 7 viewing area today.  The target area will be northern Arkansas and possibly portions of central Arkansas.  The main threat today will be very high winds, then hail.  You can never rule out a tornado, but that threat is low.  The concern for widespread high winds is great enough that the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded northern Arkansas to a "moderate risk" for severe weather.   More thunderstorm complexes will arrive over the next several days and the threat for heavy rain and flooding will be on the increase.  

This blog post will deal mainly with the threat today.  I'll have another post later dealing with the next several days.  The following maps are from showing you hi res simulated radar.

Noon today and storms are in northwest AR.
1 PM, strong to severe storms are crossing the northern sections of the state.  Remember, this is a computer model and it won't be perfect.
2PM Thursday.  I am concerned more storms will develop further south along any outflow boundary.  So while this doesn't show much if any development over central AR, we'll watch that closely.
3PM Thursday
4PM Thursday
Moderate risk for severe weather northern Arkansas today.  High winds main concern.  The risk for severe weather will be present Friday and Saturday.  High winds and hail be the bigger concern.  We can't rule out a tornado, but that threat is low.
Rain over the next 7 days may exceed 5'', especially across northern Arkansas.  Flash flooding could become a concern and river levels will rise.

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