Wednesday, June 25, 2014

State Of The Climate So Far For 2014




It's really hard to believe 2014 is almost half way over.  You'll remember we had a very cold winter and that lingered into spring.  Outside of the devastating April 27th tornadoes, it was a quiet severe weather season.  But as I always say, one storm can change everything and it did.  You will see the charts below indicate most of the year has been below average in terms of temperature and precipitation has been close to average.

So what about the remainder of the year?  I'm not a big fan of long range forecasting, but with a developing El Nino, there's a good chance temperatures will be below average with near average to above precipitation.  Meteorologist Joe Bastardi with weatherbell.com has already indicated another rough winter could be ahead for our region.  You may remember Joe accurately predicted the cold winter.  Our cold air intrusions during the winter months usually depends on the Arctic Oscillation Index.  It's a great indicator when looking for cold air.  In its positive phase, we usually see above average temperatures.  When it goes negative, it can get very cold.  However, it's not perfect and there have been times when it's positive and we experience chilly/cool weather.  This index is nearly impossible to predict months down the road.

In the charts below, horizontal line is the 30 year average and this data is from the National Weather Service official monthly numbers.




1 comment:

Anonymous said...

All the more reason to look forward to next winter! Can't wait.

NOAA Winter Guidance