Thursday, October 02, 2014

Trouble Tonight



2:10PM Thursday Update... This video goes over the newest data this Thursday afternoon.   It goes into specific threats and timing.  Stay weather aware this evening into the overnight.


Over the past few weeks I kept commenting to my wife about how quiet the weather was and how we're going to pay for it at some point.  Well, some of that payback comes later today I guess.

I really do not have too much in the way of changes, EXCEPT to increase the threat for an isolated tornado or two.  I still think the main threat will be very high winds with a line of thunderstorms.  There will also be the threat for some hail.  Even though we'll have heavy rainfall, and at times some street flooding, the overall flood threat will be low due to the fast moving nature of the line.

I don't like severe weather, but I love the chilly air behind the front.  I expect highs only in the 60s/70s and lows in the 30s/40s through Sunday.  Yes, I still think there will be a wind chill factor Saturday morning.

Please be weather aware later tonight into the evening.  If all this develops as planned, I anticipate power outages due to the high winds expected with the line.

Below are maps from weatherbell.com

At 7PM, this model shows the strong to severe line entering western Arkansas.  Never perfect, but this has a good handle on the situation I think!
Here's simulated radar at 10PM.  There could be areas where the line "bows" out a little.  These areas will be the focus for higher winds.  Also.  As you can see here, the time frame for central Arkansas will be between 9PM to midnight.  
By 1AM, the line doesn't look as strong as it enters eastern and southeastern Arkansas, but it could still produce severe weather.
All of Arkansas has a "slight" risk for severe weather.  The main threat will be high winds.  I can't rule out an isolated tornado or two.
Look at these lows Saturday morning.  40s!
7AM wind chills in the 30s and low 40s Saturday!
Highs Saturday afternoon will only be in the upper 60s to near 70!

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