Tuesday, October 07, 2014

Very Significant Rainfall Possible For Some



Don't you just love Arkansas weather?  We went almost 3 weeks without any measurable rainfall in Little Rock (September) and I think by the time we get into next week, we'll be sick of it.

When I go to schools and teach kids about the weather, I always point out the Gulf of Mexico supplies us with a vast majority of our moisture.  Without the Gulf, we would be a desert.  There are times when other moisture sources can play a significant role in our weather and this may be one of them.  Moisture from an eastern Pacific hurricane, Simon, will get entrained into the atmosphere.  This will act to enhance rainfall amounts as a frontal boundary stalls across the state.

The time period I'm watching is late Thursday through the weekend.  Where this boundary sets up and the focus for the heaviest rainfall is still uncertain, but where this does occur, several inches will be possible and I'm concerned about flooding.  The European model is different in that it shows a very significant wave of low pressure developing along the boundary next Monday and increases the threat for big storms and more heavy rainfall.  You know how much I like the Euro in this time period so we need to watch it. 

I would expect to see a few showers/storms early Wednesday morning as the front lifts to the north, then it settles back into the state later Thursday into the weekend.  Some of the following maps are from weatherbell.com


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Another brief cool down, and then back to the 80's as usual. When will the madness stop?

NOAA Winter Guidance