Sunday, November 16, 2014

A Sleddable Snow?


7:50PM Sunday update... Here's the newest information this Sunday evening.






When making a snow forecast, I was taught to always think about what could go wrong with it.  I keep thinking about the previous 2 disturbances: Thursday and Saturday afternoon.  On Thursday morning, we thought there could be a few flurries.  Instead, that turned out to be a dusting to 4 tenths of an inch.  Not much at all, but more than we expected and it caused a few slick spots.  The system Saturday was forecast to produce a couple snow showers or a little sleet.  I don't think anyone saw the possibility for "thundersleet" across northern Arkansas.  So that's in the back of my mind when making a forecast for late Sunday into Monday morning.

I can't emphasize this enough...  I would NOT call this a "snow storm".  This will be the type of snow, especially for northern Arkansas, which will cause a few travel problems and I expect school closings.  Further south into the metro, I have taken snowfall accumulations further south.  At this time, I think a dusting to an inch is a good forecast for the metro.  Many times, people will only see the "1 inch" in the forecast and if they only get a dusting they think the forecast is wrong.   A "sleddable snow"?  Yes, for SOME!  Obviously up north!

The coldest air of the season will push into the state Monday with strong northerly winds 15-25 mph with higher gusts.  This will produce wind chill values in the teens and 20s.  Tuesday morning will bring lows in the teens and low 20s.  I also expect a warm up to begin by mid week, but temperatures may stay a little below average.

Below are maps from our exclusive model "FUTURECAST".  It's important to remember, no snow forecast will be absolutely perfect.   This is our current thinking.

By noon, we could see a round of light snow across NW Arkansas. This MIGHT be a little early, but worth watching.
By 4PM, that lifts north and we'll watch more snow expand out of Oklahoma.
By 9PM, a mix can be expected across the metro with light snow north of Little Rock.
By midnight, the northern half of the state is seeing some snow.  It may even extend as far south as Hot Spring and Jefferson county.
By 2AM, it quickly moves out of the Channel 7 viewing area.
It's important to remember, NO snow forecast will be perfect, but this is a good preliminary look.  This can still change pending more data.  It's possible some of the higher elevations could reach 3'' in the Ozarks
The GFS shows something similar with the target area over northern Arkansas.
The hi res GFS.  ONLY A MODEL
And the Euro.

1 comment:

J Pruitt said...

Thanks, Todd. The AWB is a valuable tool for me as a teacher.

NOAA Winter Guidance