Thursday, November 20, 2014

Long Range As Clear As Mud


For those who are waiting for the winter contest to start, I hope to have news for you very soon.  I'm still working on the grand prize.  For all of you weather geeks and even non-weather geeks, this is going to be awesome.

I have looked at the main long range models lately for the period around Thanksgiving and into that weekend.  The GFS and the Euro couldn't be further apart.  The GFS shows a large ridge and above average temperatures while the European is indicating another strong surge of arctic air.  The afternoon run of the GFS did look like it was trying to trend towards the European solution.  It's going to be interesting to watch how this unfolds.  I'll have more soon.


This is the Thursday morning run of the GFS valid the day after Thanksgiving.  It's the 500 mb chart which is about 20K up into the atmosphere.  It shows you where these storms are along with the ridges and troughs.  This indicates ridging over the Rockies and Plains with a strong storm over the eastern U.S.  This is cool to mild for us with no true arctic air.
The European for this time is completely different.  Where the GFS shows a ridge, there's a trough with arctic air draining down the plains.  The GFS has an east coast storm and the European has ridging and mild weather.  Two completely different looks.

Then the afternoon run of the GFS came back for this time period.  Notice it's showing troughing now over the plains and there's no ridge.  I think it may start to show trends towards the colder Euro.   It will be fun to watch.

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