Monday, November 24, 2014

Thanksgiving And Beyond... It May Get Active.

A few days ago I said the forecast for the end of this week was as clear as mud, however, that picture has come into focus.  A strong cold front will move through the state Wednesday, but there will not be much moisture for it to work with.  I only expect a few clouds and maybe a shower or even a few snowflakes across far northeast Arkansas.  This cold front will bring below average temperatures Thanksgiving with plenty of sunshine.  I would expect highs near 50 degrees.  Great weather to head outside and toss the football around!

As we go into the weekend and the following week, things get very active and interesting.  While the models are in some sort of agreement, I do not trust specifics at all right now. There will be some arctic air which will try to get into the mid south by the beginning of next week.  With this being 6-7 days out, I do not trust the model placement of that arctic boundary.  It's worth noting, at this time, most of the data I have looked at keeps it either in northern Arkansas or even further to the north.  This would keep most of the Natural State in the warm sector.  No matter where this front ends up, it may not matter with the system coming at us from the western United States around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week (December 2 and 3).  That system will allow Gulf warmth and moisture to surge northward and I would not doubt if some locations reached 70 degrees!  That's never good in December.  I want to remind everyone that we are still in our secondary severe weather season!  This potent storm is seen by all long range models, but specifics can not be pinned down this far out.  The timing, strength, and track is still very, very uncertain.  The model maps below explain the possibilities.

These are possible high temperatures according to the GFS on Thanksgiving.  This data is courtesy of  Notice it's cooler across northeast Arkansas and warmer across the SW.   That's due to the fact the core of the cold is with the surface high which should track northeast of the state.
Let's fast forward to Monday, December 1st.  Look at that sharp boundary getting into northwest Arkansas.  According to this piece of data, that's as far south as it gets with well above average temperatures south of it.  This is almost 7 days away and I do not trust this specific location.  As I pointed out above, it may not matter because that boundary will eventually get kicked to the north no matter what as a strong storm approaches from the west.
This is the GFS valid next Wednesday at noon.  It indicates a strong storm system bringing heavy rain and storms to much of the state.
The European for this same time period brings in the front close to NW Arkansas, but holds the storm over the southwestern United States and swings it through here late in the week.  So you can see, both have the storm, but are different on timing, strength and track.
In summary, Thanksgiving looks nice with a warming trend into the weekend.  We'll have to watch the middle of the following week for a storm system swinging out of the plains.  Whether or not we have any strong/severe weather is questionable, but I want to get the word out now to create awareness.  Remember, this is our secondary severe weather season.  I'll keep you updated.

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