Sunday, December 14, 2014

Turning Very Active... Parade of Storms

Here we go!  The last half of December looks very stormy compared to the first half of the month, but what about colder?  Yes, but nothing major until maybe the end of the month.  We have 3 rounds of rain to deal with this week alone and everyone wants to see a little wintry weather out of at least one of them and I do think it's possible.  However, we really are lacking significant cold air!!!!  Again, that may change by the last 7-10 days of the month, but the only real chance for wintry weather will near the Missouri border.

Our first system arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.  We'll have a round of rain and storms and the severe threat is very low.  Strong southerly and southwesterly winds will take over Monday afternoon.  So while the rain may stop falling, it might be raining leaves again.  Although most of those are down.  I raked 20 bags of them last week.  Those winds will be very strong ahead of the cold front and it COULD take temperatures to near record highs!  The models say we may approach 70 degrees and the record is 72 set in 1984.  It's possible to challenge it.

We'll turn much cooler for the remainder of the week, but no true arctic air will be available.  Our next wave of moisture does not look all that significant and it should arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.  It could have a little wintry mix near the Missouri border, but not a big deal.

The next wave arrives Friday into Saturday morning.  This is a stronger wave of energy and it's a classic track for wintry weather across the state, BUT, once again, we're lacking air cold enough to make the flakes fly.   We're looking at a cold rain.  On the back side, we could have a wintry mix near the Missouri border.  

Don't worry, this active pattern will continue into the end of the month and eventually, we'll get that needed cold air in place.  LET'S HOPE! 

Below, most maps are from explaining the situation.

This is the 500 mb pattern this week.  I just wanted to show you how these waves of energy are tracking off the Pacific Ocean, into the south, then up to the northeast.  It really is a parade of storms!
We have the initial round of rain and storms Sunday night into Monday morning, this is another weaker wave Wednesday night into Thursday morning.  It's a cold rain!  This is the GFS.  The solid blue line is the 35 degree line and the solid red line is the 32 degree line.  Notice how it's north of the state.  There could be a few flakes near the border with Missouri.
The GFS at noon Friday shows a stronger wave of surface low pressure over southeast Texas.  This is a classic track for a winter storm, HOWEVER, THE COLD AIR IS REALLY LACKING!  A cold rain will be likely across the state with highs only in the 30s and 40s.
Friday night, as the low moves to the east, enough low level cold air may get drawn southward for a BRIEF changeover to a wintry mix over far northern Arkansas.  
In summary, after a mild Monday, the pattern gets wild.  We will get colder, but just not cold enough for wintry weather, except a little up north.   Can this change? Yes.  However, most of the data just gives us rain this week.  It's northern Arkansas we need to watch, especially Friday into Saturday morning.  We'll see what happens.

1 comment:

jimmylee42 said...

Todd-It is interesting that after that record high Monday in 1984 the bottom fell out on temps with a 6 below in NLR and 2 below in LR January of 85. We also had a big snow at the end of January and some highs in February in the teens with some single digit lows. Thanks to the NWS for the info.

NOAA Winter Guidance