Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Weather Getting Ready To Rock N Roll into The New Year



4:30PM  Tuesday Update.... As I stated in the morning blog post, we should keep an eye on the Tuesday/Wednesday time period.  The Euro completely takes any winter weather away next week.  Never fear, the models will show it again and then take it away, then show it, etc, etc, etc.  LOL.  Like I said, don't get your hopes up, let's just watch.  It does look colder next week, but I question how long that cold will last.  There are already signs of a January thaw!  UGGGHHHHHHHHH

The GFS has also taken away any of its moisture next Tuesday/Wednesday.  This leads me to the discussion I had in the post "wiggle room".  Scroll down further for that.  The models have been nothing short of horrible in the medium to long range.  It placed the current trough over us now over the Great Lakes and the Middle Atlantic 7 days ago.  That's why I keep saying you shouldn't hang your hat on any particular solution.  The one thing the models have been showing is a return to colder air next week.  We'll see how strong.  Here's the afternoon run of the GFS.  It's pretty darn chilly


Remember, this is 7 days away.  This indicates noon temperatures on Dec 30th in the 30s and still at or below freezing across the northern 1/3 of the state.

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There's so much to talk about, where do I begin?  I was like a kid in a candy store looking at all the data this Tuesday morning.  Remember, I thought the last week of this month would turn colder and I said I would be surprised if someone didn't get at least an inch of snow before the end of the month.  Looking at all the models, all of that is very much on the table.

First of all, the system we're experiencing right now (Tuesday) is going as planned and it's mostly rain.  Tonight into Wednesday morning, I expect a transition to some wet snowflakes, especially over the higher elevations of western and northern Arkansas.  Once again, we're lacking temperatures cold enough at the surface to support snow.  Aloft, it's very ideal.  It's a situation where some of the snowflakes could reach the ground in those locations north and west with readings in the mid and upper 30s.  As the strong area of low pressure moves in aloft, my concern is a narrow area where dynamic cooling can take temperatures down just a little bit further.  IF, and another big IF that occurs, accumulations would be light and once again, in the higher elevations of western and northern Arkansas.  I really think most of us will stay with plain rain.  I'll keep watching it for you.

Christmas still looks dry with the sun emerging.  Look for highs in the mid 50s!

Rain chances come back later Friday as another front moves into the state.  This will be all rain, but the models are hinting at another wave of moisture coming in Saturday night into Sunday with colder air in place.  It's possible for some wintry weather, but the most favored area will be northern Arkansas.  This is a fast moving wave and anything falling should be light!

Keep an eye on next Tuesday and Wednesday as the data continues to point towards a more significant wave of moisture with plenty of cold air in place.  I WANT TO CAUTION EVERYONE, STORMS ALWAYS LOOK STRONG IN THE 5 DAY TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND!!!!!  The models have a bad habit of doing this then as we get closer and closer, it's not as strong and hopes are dashed.  However, both the GFS and Euro points to a round of moisture which COULD be significant.  No need to panic, but as I said above, let's keep an eye on it!

I told you there was a lot to talk about!  The maps below are courtesy of weatherbell.com

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, the NAM/WRF has been showing the potential for some wet snow around western and northern Arkansas.  See that blue line around snaking around there?  That's the 35 degrees line so you see IF this does transition to a few flakes, temperatures will be mostly above freezing.
The GFS shows another round of light rain late Friday as a front moves into the state.
With colder air in place, another round of moisture moves in Saturday night into Sunday with the potential for some light wintry weather across northern Arkansas.  Once we get into this time period, please don't take this literally.  This will change.
Remember, storms in the long range sometimes appear stronger than they end up being.  With that said, the GFS shows the potential for a more significant round of wintry weather for most of the state late next Tuesday into Wednesday (New Years Eve).  See those black lines?  Those are isobars and a strong arctic high is firmly entrenched.  This indicates a brisk easterly to northeasterly wind which is favorable for wintry weather.  The surface low pressure is located over the northern Gulf.  Another favorable position.

In summary... I told you this pattern was getting ready to rock n roll into the New Year.  This is very important and I apologize or saying this over and over... the purpose of this blog is to show you the things I'm looking at to help formulate a forecast.  It's kind of a "behind the scenes" look at the information I go over and I like to share it with you.  Forecasting this time of year presents many challenges and I love it.  Once again, do not take these maps literally and specifically, especially next week.  I can't even begin to tell you how many times this will change, but the pattern is going to where we thought it would go and there's potential to satisfy snow lovers!!!!!!!

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

I just wish it snowed 19 inches this year! Dang it.

Anonymous said...

You know they are laughing at you up north, right? "There could be some flakes...wait, maybe, uh, gosh I wish the stars would align for a few flakes." Why don't you ask someone in International Falls to send you a few flakes. Heck, you might get enough to build a snowman.

Anonymous said...

January thaw? So much for the apocalyptic winter of 2013-14 that JB was touting about.

Anonymous said...

Correction: 2014-15*

Octo-BRRR