Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Which "S" Word Will We Use Monday? Snow or Storms


Tuesday December 9th, 2:15PM video update... this video will go over new model details for the storm system moving in next Monday.




_________________________________________________________________________________


As promised, the models are changing with each and every run.  This is very typical when we're dealing with a storm in the long range, especially one which isn't even on our shores yet. Yesterday, the models showed a track which would take it just south of the state or through southern Arkansas.  Today (Tuesday), they have all shifted to the north which opens the possibility for rain and thunderstorms.  I suspect the models will change at least another couple times.

I just want to talk a little bit about the purpose for this blog.  When I put out the post yesterday about the snow possibilities for next Monday, I got a few comments indicating an impression it was a done deal.  The purpose of this blog isn't necessarily to make a forecast, but to show you all the things which go into making a forecast and the possibilities which exist.

It's that time when we start to look at that Christmas forecast.  On the right side of this blog, you will see the chance for a white Christmas.  I will update this daily based upon what I see on the computer models.  This is basically an educated guess when we're this far out from Christmas.  Once we get within 7 days, we'll have a better idea.  Remember, I define a white Christmas as either snow falling or snow on the ground in the metro.

This is the European valid next Monday at 6PM.  At 500mb (about 20,000 feet up) you can clearly see the strong storm aloft right over Arkansas.  If you want snow, this needs to go well south of this position.  Check out yesterday's blog post.  The location at this time was a bit further south.   Today (Tuesday), it's further north.  This opens up the possibility for rain and a few thunderstorms.  Like I said, this will continue to evolve as we get closer to the actual event.  The timing and track are still uncertain.
And here is the GFS which shows the low over southern Missouri.  This would bring rain and storms to the state.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

If you split the difference between the two, you are looking at a track roughly thru Central Arkansas. Storms south of the that position. Perhaps a little back edge snow over the northern half. Thanks for keeping us posted!

NOAA Winter Guidance