Friday, February 13, 2015

Sunday Sleet and Wintry Weather


11:10AM Friday update... this video goes over the Friday morning data.  As discussed here on "Arkansas Weather Live" Thursday night, I have doubts about the 2nd round precipitation Tuesday.  Check out this in depth video




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I'm going to jump ahead of Sunday night an talk about Tuesday.  In yesterday's blog video I thought I was dreaming when I saw the models for Tuesday and it may turn out to be just that.  On Arkansas Weather Live Thursday night, I told the WeatherNinja I had serious doubts the snow Tuesday would materialize and indeed the models are backing off on it big time.  Cold, dry air from the north is pushing into the state rapidly at that time suppressing the storm to the south.  Am I sold that will be what actually happens?  No.  I do not think the models will have a good handle on it for a couple days, but the trend is not our friend.  I still think there could be a few snow flurries or snow showers, but no biggie.  I really thought with the neutral to positive AO, the track would be further north and now it shoves the moisture well south.  The jury is still out and I'll keep you updated.

Now onto Sunday and Monday.  This will be a quick hitting area of moisture.  Not a major storm, but possibly enough to cause slick areas on the roads. I think the primary precipitation type will be sleet with some light freezing rain south and light snow north.  Remember, temperatures on Saturday will be well into the 60s.  Despite these mild temperatures before the cold air arrives, I still think travel could be affected.  At this time, it looks like much of the moisture will exit Monday morning.  Again, the bottom line, not a major storm, but enough to cause problems.  Tuesday can still change, but it's going the way I thought at this time.

The following maps are from Weatherbell

6PM Sunday, the GFS shows precip over the previous 6 hours.  Sleet is overspreading many areas with the 32 degree line in red and hovering around the metro.  Some freezing rain SW and west with light snow north
Between 6PM and midnight, there's a widespread wintry mix across the state.  Most of this is light with maybe a few embedded areas of moderate precip. If this trends colder, maybe some snow for central Arkansas.
Between midnight and 6AM, the precip is moving out.
By mid to late morning, just a few lingering rain showers south with a pocket or two of freezing rain.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

You'll never know. All this takes is a little more moisture to create a mess! I mean what the heck, it's only Friday Morning! Models could change into a horrible Winter storm. They do seem to underestimate storms like this sometimes... Just don't let your guard down!

Anonymous said...

Let's face it... Arkansas is craving for snow.:/ any snow is good snow!

Anonymous said...

No no NO! Must have SNOW!

Anonymous said...

Remember! These storms always throw a curveball. Very hard to predict. What will be the curveball this time?? Only one person knows for sure.

Anonymous said...

Oh how i wish the Nam was reliable right now

NOAA Winter Guidance