Monday, March 02, 2015

Mother Nature Throws Another Winter Storm At Us

1PM Monday Update... for a more detailed discussion, please watch the video below.

There are still uncertainties regarding the winter storm Wednesday.  When will it cool to 32 degrees or colder is a one of those concerns.  Also, precip. type is uncertain.  There should be a transition from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow at many locations.  How long you have a certain type is quite debatable.  I'm going to show you three models below and how different they are with respect to the 32 degree line.  Also below is the first SCHOOL:CON index issued.  I'll update that again Tuesday.

The GFS is quickest with bringing subfreezing air south.  At noon Wednesday, everyone along and north of that white line is 32 degree or colder.

The European model at noon Wednesday has that line further north and slower moving towards the south.

At 5PM, the NAM still has much of the state ABOVE freezing.  So you see the uncertainties here!  At this time, I'm leaning towards the middle of the road approach, Euro.
The first SCHOOL:CON index shows the highest chance for no school Wednesday will be north and less likely south due to the uncertainties of the freezing line.  Is it possible to get school in across south Arkansas, then have the winter weather later in the afternoon? sure!  I will update this Tuesday.


It's looking more and more likely another winter storm will affect the state.  The worst of this may be over northern, central, and eastern Arkansas, but the details can still change.  All forms of precipitation will be possible starting Wednesday morning.  We'll go from plain rain, to freezing rain, then to sleet and snow.

Having a snow storm in March is NOT unusual, especially early March.  IF this storm comes together, roads may be rotten Wednesday, but should improve by Thursday afternoon due to the higher sun angle in March.  You can have temperatures in the upper 20s and the roads will melt off.  So at this time, I think travel will be difficult, but not for days.

One other aspect to the end of the week, we'll have the potential to break record low temperatures IF there is snow and ice on the ground.   Those records are in the mid and upper teens and we could  challenge that.

This video is loaded with specifics and my thoughts about this possible winter storm.  Thanks for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog for your information.


Anonymous said...

Changing topics. This is regarding severe weather awareness week. I think it is important to spread the word that Arkansas is notorious for nighttime tornadoes. That in turn raises the fatality rate. Which leads to the importance of weather radios. You have to wake up and get to safety.

Anonymous said...

Todd, how could you of all people be TIRED of winter? I wish it were winter year round! That would be perfect.

NOAA Winter Guidance