Friday, April 24, 2015

Watching For Strong To Severe Storms Today (Friday)

12:25 PM Friday Update... Clouds and rain will help keep instability values in check today, but it's southern Arkansas where we need to watch.  While the worst of the thunderstorm activity may end up being over Texas and Louisiana, a few strong to severe storms will move into southern Arkansas and the main threat will be high winds.  A tornado can't be ruled out across that area as well.   Further north, it's heavy rainfall which will end up being a bigger threat.  I'm keeping an eye on the situation for you.

Severe risk today is slight for much of the southwestern half of the state with an "enhanced" risk further south.

The tornado threat is elevated further south as well with small chances north.  This is where more of the surface based instability may develop.
Severe hail will be possible as well.
High winds will be a threat too, especially over far southern Arkansas.

The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) shows between 1-3 inches of rainfall will be possible across much of central and southern Arkansas through 1AM Saturday.  While this may not cause significant flooding, watch for rising water in low lying areas.

Hope for clouds and rain today because if the sun comes out, that's a very bad thing.  The more sunshine we receive, the more the atmosphere will destabilize.  At this time, it appears the worst storms will track through southern Arkansas.  The potential for severe winds (58 mph or greater) is elevated.  It might be a good idea to have your cell phones charged and a flashlight ready to go.  There's also a chance for tornadoes, especially across the far south.

This video goes into timing and specific threats for specific locations.

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