Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Here Comes Bill

As I mentioned on the air this weekend, it does not matter if we have a named storm or not.  The remnant rainfall of any tropical system can bring heavy and excessive rainfall to us.  Considering the heavy rainfall over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma, flooding concerns are enhanced.  The obvious flash flooding is a concern, but river flooding after the storm exits will also be a big concern, especially along the Arkansas River.  Eastern Oklahoma will receive more than 5'' of rainfall and much of that will drain down the river.

As mentioned here a couple days ago, brief tornadoes will be possible along and east of the track.  These are not your typical tornadoes and they can develop with little warning.  They are usually not too strong, but any tornado can cause injury or death.  We really need to watch this, especially across western Arkansas.  Once again, the threat is low, but it is there!  Eastern Arkansas will see little if any rainfall out of this, UNLESS the track shifts.

One more thing to watch... a miniature heat wave next week.  I think highs could get close to 100 degrees with heat index values much higher.  A heat advisory may be issued for the first time this year, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.  Let's get past "Bill" first.

Track of Bill will likely follow that black line, but there is uncertainty and it could shift a little west or east of that.  No matter what, you don't want to be east of the center.  That's the location of the heaviest rainfall and that puts western Arkansas at risk.  Also, a brief tornado or two will be possible across western Arkansas, but the BIGGEST threat will be flash flooding and river flooding.
GFS from WeatherBell.com indicates more than 4'' of rain possible west with little if any southeast through late Friday.  Notice the heaviest rainfall is along the track in eastern OK.  Some of that water will drain down the Arkansas River and river flooding will be an issue.
The NAM through Friday afternoon shows almost the same thing.  Heaviest rain north and west with little southeast.
The European model shows up to 5'' or more over eastern OK... NOT GOOD!!!  Western Arkansas could see 3-5'' if the Euro is correct.  Once again, little if any southeast.
The manual progs from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a swath of heavy rainfall over western and northwestern Arkansas with little if any east.  The forecast is coming together and there's a high degree in confidence at this point.

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