Too many times the phrase "normal temperature for this time of year" is thrown around. There's nothing "normal" about a particular days high temperature. For example, when you hear the "normal high temperature for February 1st is 52 degrees", it's a completely wrong way to describe what one may expect for that day. In reality, there's much more variance involved
The National Weather Service bases that number on an AVERAGE of a 30 year period. At this time, I believe that 30 year average is from 1980 to 2010.
Here are the high temperatures (in the second column) for every February 1st from 1980 to 2010
|FEBRUARY 1ST HIGH TEMPERATURE 1980 TO 2010 FOR LITTLE ROCK|
The so called "normal" high for this day is 52 degrees. Notice during this period, it has never been "normal". Not once was it 52 degrees... NOT ONCE! It's an "average"... plain and simple! The average high temperature for February 1st is 52 degrees.
|So I'm leading the charge to change the Climo summary from the NWS. LOL. In reality it's not a big deal, just a pet peeve of mine!|
Ok, I'm getting off my soapbox and I'll return to weather. Data points to coldest air so far this season next week. I'm not ready to buy that at this time. I think it gets cold, but to what degree is in question. See what I did there? LOL
What about snow chances? When arctic air gets involved, it's always possible. So it's really not going out on any limb to say we must watch for any moisture which gets involved. More later.