With the forecast of La Nina conditions (cooling of the water in the equatorial Pacific), guidance into the rest of the year will show warmer than average temperatures across much of North America. HOWEVER, I have seen these forecasts change quickly! Several years ago, we had a La Nina and it turned out to be a very cold and snowy winter due to a persistent negative AO (arctic oscillation). If you're a cold and snow lover, don't get worried... YET!
The data below is courtesy of the NWS Little Rock. So far this year in Arkansas...
- 21 tornadoes (yearly state average is 33)
- 0 fatalities
- 5 injuries
- 5 cases of extreme straight-line winds with no fatalities or injuries
- 2 flash flood fatalities
- 0 injuries
- dust storm in Walnut Ridge... 1 fatality with 12+ injuries
It's important to note, we still have a couple important things to watch this year in terms of severe weather. Remnant tropical systems can bring flash flooding and tornadoes IF they affect Arkansas. Also, we have our secondary severe weather season late this fall into early winter. There are times when it can be more active than our primary spring severe weather season. Let's watch it!
|3 month temperature outlook (July, August, September). The odds tilt toward above average temperatures.|
|3 month precipitation outlook. Equal Chances for normal, above average, below average rainfall. They are saying the odds don't favor anything. IMO, it's 2016, let's take a stand with these forecasts.|
|Temperature outlook for September, October, and November... Odds tilt to above average temperatures|
|The winter months of December, January, and February... odds tilt to above average temperatures.|