Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Maybe We Should Start A Rain Dance?

I say that with hesitation.  As many of you know, you must be careful with what you ask for in Arkansas.  We can go from drought to flooding quickly as many of us have witnessed in the past.

I have no changes to what I think will unfold Friday.  We'll have a quick moving area of rain and thunderstorms.  The severe threat is quite low, but I would not be surprised if a strong storm developed.  Ahead of the front, winds will pick up and that may enhance the wildfire danger.

It's a roller coaster ride for sure! After near record breaking highs today (Wednesday) and tomorrow.  This weekend will feature the coldest air of the season so far.  Not so much in terms of overnight lows, but daytime highs may only reach the 40s and 50s Saturday and Sunday.

I'm already looking at next week as the busiest travel day of the year approaches.  The timing of the next system is uncertain, but it looks like late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  With it being a week away, this is subject to change.  Once again, we'll have an area of rain move through and there could even be a storm or two.

What should be quite apparent is the changing weather pattern!  Notice we're getting into more and more rain chances as we get deeper into fall!  Once again, be careful for what you ask.  Around here, mother nature can over deliver!

The GFS has been the most enthusiastic with rain amounts and storm chances.  The latest run as of Wednesday morning is no exception.  Some locations, especially across the SE half of the state could see up to 1''... IF THIS VERIFIES.
The European model has been less enthusiastic with rain chances, but the newest run has upped the rain amounts a little.

The front is pushing into central Arkansas Friday AM according to the RPM.  Look at that temperature contrast!  40s northwest to 70s central and southeast.
By 2PM, the RPM has the front over far eastern Arkansas with temperatures around 70 to 80 degrees with 50s and 60s elsewhere.  If the front moves through fast enough, that's great news for all the Friday night football games!

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