Wednesday, November 23, 2016

You Want More Rain? You Got It!

5:30PM Wednesday update... As expected, the models are waffling in the placement of the heaviest rainfall and this may continue with each model run for awhile.  For more on that, watch the video below.

I wanted to use this update to go over a couple thoughts.  First is the severe weather threat.  You can't rule it out, but at this time, it still appears like the highest threat will be south of the state.  The newest GFS brings a lot of this in Monday night into Tuesday morning when instability levels won't be maximized.  That does NOT mean we can't have severe weather so it's something we must watch.

The winds with this system may be quite strong.  The newest GFS shows winds just off the surface reaching 30 knots or higher ahead of the front and surface low.  This is important because the trees are still holding their leaves.  If the wind knocks them down and the rainfall becomes heavy, we're talking about clogged storm drains.  That can lead to an enhanced flooding threat.  I'll preface all this with a big "IF".  But these are the things I like to share with you on this blog.

I hate to be wishy washy on all this, but with a system still several days away, the timing, track, and intensity of the storm system can change.  I'll keep you updated.

This is the 18Z GFS from Wednesday, November 23rd.   This model runs 4 times a day and differs with each solution, especially in the long range.  For instance, the previous model run had the surface low Tuesday morning a bit further south.  Nevertheless, look at these 10 meter winds along and ahead of the low and front within the "warm sector".  If these reach the surface, winds could be 30mph or higher.  That can knock those leaves down easily and clog storm drains.

GFS instability isn't impressive.  While this can always change depending on timing and track, heavy rainfall looks to be the greatest threat as the model guidance tells us today.

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As I have always said, be careful with what you ask for!  We are going into a wetter and colder weather pattern next week with a significant storm system possible Monday into Tuesday.  At this time, heavy rain is the main concern.  There may also be another storm system to watch later in the week.

This video goes over everything you need to know from A to Z PLUS a very special Thanksgiving message towards the end.


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Octo-BRRR