Severe Saturday

The much talked about storm system is here and it's playing out as we thought... so far.  

I was very hesitant about storms late Friday in the Channel 7 viewing area.  As it turned out, most of the activity was in eastern OK, far NW Arkansas, and southern Missouri.  That's where I think it will stay until later today.  The "main event" should arrive late today into tonight from west to east.  However, the HRRR is trying to blow up storms over the state this afternoon.  With that said, my favorite short range model, (HRRR), is really struggling lately.   It was completely wrong with storm development Friday PM.  I will watch for any development this afternoon because you can't completely ignore what it says.  However, I still think the worst will arrive this evening into tonight. The main threat will be flooding rainfall, large hail, and damaging winds.  Could there be a tornado or two?  Yes.  I expect a tornado watch to be issued later Saturday.  The highest chance for flooding rainfall will be across northern Arkansas where totals will be around 6'' or more.

The HRRR is from Weatherbell.com

The HRRR at 2PM shows those storms over western Arkansas blowing up.  I'm not sold on that happening as this is the model struggling lately.  Like I said, it can't be ignored so we'll watch it.  Look at the storms over Oklahoma.  Those are the ones we'll be watching late today into tonight.

The HRRR at 7PM.  These "future radars" are never perfect, but it does show you where the heavy rain and storms will likely be located.

9PM HRRR

11PM HRRR

1AM Sunday HRRR

As of Saturday morning, most of the state has an "enhanced risk" for severe storms.

Severe weather impact for the Channel 7 viewing area.

Euro total rainfall. 

Severe Weather And Flooding

An area of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the state from west to east today.  The newest data indicates this may move through faster than anticipated.  This raises concerns for the kids in school and I urge all school admins and teachers to review your severe weather safety plans.  

The main threats will be damaging winds and hail.  Tornadoes will also be possible.  Remember, there are only two things which make a storm severe: hail 1''+ in diameter and/or winds 58mph or greater.  Lightning does not make a storm severe, but it's still very dangerous.  When the thunder roars, get indoors.

The next system arrives Friday evening with the threat for severe weather and flooding.  There could be more than 6'' of rain across northern Arkansas through the weekend which will become a big concern.  I expect flash flood watch for much of the northern half of the state this weekend.  Severe weather will also be possible for much of the state.

The following maps of future radar is the HRRR from Weatherbell.com.  Remember, radar simulation is never perfect.

11AM

Noon

1pm

2pm

3pm

4pm

5pm

6pm

Morning severe weather outlook from the SPC

Rainfall through Sunday morning could exceed 6'' across northern Arkansas.  I have seen modeling which shows much higher totals possible.  Flash flooding and river flooding possible.

Wednesday Worries

Active may be an understatement when it comes to the weather over the next 5 days.  The first round of rough weather arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The main threat with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes.  I fully expect a tornado watch to be issued for much of Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and evening.  

There will be two things to watch Wednesday afternoon.  The first is the line itself.  The line or broken line of storms will pose a wind, hail, and tornado threat.  Second, any storms that develop ahead of the main line, these could pose an enhanced tornado potential.
 
This will be an area of rain and thunderstorms quickly marching across the state.  While rain could be heavy, the bigger flooding threat will arrive late this week into the weekend.

A warm front will lift northward Friday with areas of rain and storms along and ahead of the front.   Storms later Friday may be strong to severe and rain will be heavy, especially across northern Arkansas.  There MIGHT be a brief lull before the whole storm system moves through Saturday into early Sunday.  Once again, hail, wind, and tornadoes will be possible.  Total rainfall amounts may reach 6 inches or more over the next 5 days. 

The timing of all this is still subject to change, especially with the system later this week.

Below are maps from Weatherbell.com with future radar.  Again, don't look at these and take the location of storms literally, but it will give you a good general idea.

5PM

6PM (watch the cells ahead of the main line)

7PM

8PM

9PM

Most of the state has an "enhanced" risk for severe weather Wednesday.

Severe weather impacts Wednesday.

Friday severe threat

Saturday severe threat

Rainfall amounts could reach 6'' or more.  Most of this will fall Friday through Sunday.

Very Active Week Ahead

Spring is about to get another kick start into high gear with two storm systems this week and multiple rounds of storms.  Some of those could be strong to severe.  All modes of severe weather will be possible (hail, wind, and tornadoes).  Heavy rain and flooding could also become an issue.

The first arrives Wednesday, then the next starts Friday and lasts through a portion of the weekend.  Of course with the system Wednesday, we have a better handle on that compared to the one arriving late this week.

This video goes over timing and specific threats.

Windsday and Beyond

A very strong storm system will bring a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms later today mainly for northwest Arkansas.  The threat for severe storms will be low.  High winds behind the storm system will bring windy conditions for much of the state so we're calling Wednesday, "WINDSDAY". 

This video goes over the following.

• LATE DAY STORM POTENTIAL
• WINDSDAY
• FROST POTENTIAL LATE THIS WEEK
• NEXT WEEK STORM POTENTIAL