Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Wednesday Worries

Active may be an understatement when it comes to the weather over the next 5 days.  The first round of rough weather arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening.  The main threat with these storms will be large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes.  I fully expect a tornado watch to be issued for much of Arkansas Wednesday afternoon and evening.  

There will be two things to watch Wednesday afternoon.  The first is the line itself.  The line or broken line of storms will pose a wind, hail, and tornado threat.  Second, any storms that develop ahead of the main line, these could pose an enhanced tornado potential.
 
This will be an area of rain and thunderstorms quickly marching across the state.  While rain could be heavy, the bigger flooding threat will arrive late this week into the weekend.

A warm front will lift northward Friday with areas of rain and storms along and ahead of the front.   Storms later Friday may be strong to severe and rain will be heavy, especially across northern Arkansas.  There MIGHT be a brief lull before the whole storm system moves through Saturday into early Sunday.  Once again, hail, wind, and tornadoes will be possible.  Total rainfall amounts may reach 6 inches or more over the next 5 days. 

The timing of all this is still subject to change, especially with the system later this week.

Below are maps from Weatherbell.com with future radar.  Again, don't look at these and take the location of storms literally, but it will give you a good general idea.

5PM
6PM (watch the cells ahead of the main line)

7PM

8PM

9PM

Most of the state has an "enhanced" risk for severe weather Wednesday.
Severe weather impacts Wednesday.
Friday severe threat

Saturday severe threat
Rainfall amounts could reach 6'' or more.  Most of this will fall Friday through Sunday.

No comments:

NOAA Winter Guidance