Wild Temperature Swing On The Way

Wednesday morning was the coldest for many since March 15th and we have even colder weather not far away. Also, temperature swings will be drastic this week.  This is completely typical this time of year and usually do it again as we come out of winter into spring.  It's these change in seasons which help produce severe weather and we saw evidence of that last Sunday.  FYI, severe weather really isn't much of a concern with the next batch of cold air, but it's always worth watching.

Highs Thursday will be near 80°, then the new front moves through with falling temperatures Friday.  You may remember earlier in the week I was talking about rain chances.  The Euro said yes and the GFS was dry as a bone.  I thought the GFS would tend to look more like the Euro in time.  Lo and behold, all the models show a quick shot of light rain Friday.  Amounts will not be much, but the clouds and showers will have a chill on the temperature.  The high Friday will likely be set around midnight with temperatures falling all day into the 40s by the time high school football starts.

Tuesday, I put out the following Tweet, 

Now, it's important to understand the wording.  Nowhere in the tweet did I say that would happen.  I only asked what you would say. LOL.

While 99.999999% of us will see a few rain showers, I would not be surprised if someone in the highest of elevations of northern Arkansas said something like, "I thought I saw a sleet pellet or a wet snow flake mixed in with that rain shower."  It really would not be unusual this time of year for that portion of the state.  But after reaching the 70s and near 80° Thursday, there is a "WOW" factor involved.

Once that front passes through, the weekend will be chilly with highs only in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.  The chance for a widespread frost/freeze will be likely and I expect warnings and advisories to be issued.

The North American Model (NAM) shows the chilly temperatures late Friday.  It's slower bringing in the moisture and colder air. I think there's a good chance much of the rain is gone earlier in the evening.  However, look what it's doing in north central Arkansas.  This is what I would not be surprised about.  Again, I can't emphasize enough, not a biggie.

When I looked at the RPM Tuesday, there were a couple runs doing the same thing.  I'm not a big fan of that model until your within 24 hours in range.  However, this is Arkansas and not much surprised me when it comes to weather.

Bottom line summary

• QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY TO NEAR 80°
• TEMPERATURES DROP ALL DAY FRIDAY
• A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ADD AN EXTRA CHILL TO THE AIR
• THIS WILL BE A CHILI NO BEANS, PUMPKIN SPICE, HOT CHOCOLATE KIND OF COLD FRONT
• THE WEEKEND WILL BE VERY COLD WITH A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE LIKELY
• CHECK THE HEAT IN YOUR HOUSE AND MAKE SURE IT'S RUNNING PROPERLY
• CHECK YOUR SMOKE DETECTOR AND MAKE SURE YOU HAVE A CARBON MONOXIDE DETECTOR WORKING PROPERLY