Thursday, November 30, 2017

Katy Bar The Door. Cold is a Comin'

Thursday 2:50PM Update... I have looked at the newest European model and it looks nothing like the GFS with that snow on the back end early Wednesday morning.  I'm still leaning towards the Euro which has the moisture gone by the time air cold enough to support snow arrives.  Sorry, as much as I want it, I'm not going to wishcast it.

By the end of next week, the Euro still shows a disturbance moving in the north-northwesterly wind flow aloft cranking out snow flurries/snow showers.  However, it places the precip across extreme northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.  Since this is still a week away, I would not get bogged down into the details, but IF something does come from this, it would be very light.  Like I said below, it's NOT how we get big snows around here.

The last item I need to discuss in this update is the coming cold.  Yes, it will be sustained due to the blocking showing up across the higher latitudes.  This forces the cold air to charge south.  While I think the cold will be sustained, there could be a day or two thrown in there where it warms up a bit ahead of more arctic air charging south.  All in all, the two week period starting next week should be well below average and it may last longer.  

Thanks again for your trust in the Arkansas Weather Blog.  It's going to be a fun winter.


I hope you enjoyed my conversation with meteorologist Joe Bastardi.  I love listening to his seasonal forecasting ideas.  Joe's tropical season forecast did quite well and he did target December for a colder than average month since last summer.  I highly suggest subscribing to his site if you get a chance.

While December will start very mild, it shouldn't last long at all and it may end up much different than the past 2.  December 2015 was +9° above average which is outrageously warm.  Then December 2016 was only +.3° above average.

When we talk about cold, I really don't think this will be anything we haven't experienced in the past, at least initially.  As we go deeper into the month of course, anything is possible.  But with the first surges of cold air next week, it looks like a very typical December chill.  

As you saw in the video with Joe, if this pattern persists into Christmas, and it could, it would increase our chance for a white Christmas compared to what has happened historically.  I'm NOT saying we'll have a white Christmas, but this pattern CAN produce if we stay in it long enough.  

The morning run of the GFS does show something interesting.  It has rain lasting into Wednesday with the cold air catching up to it.  That would allow a brief changeover as the precipitation comes to an end.  It's important to note, the Euro blasts the rain out of here, then the very cold air arrives so the Euro is snowless at this point.  At this time, I would say it's typical GFS garbage!

The Euro in the very long range does show something worth watching.  A strong northerly flow develops.  With cold air in place, embedded disturbances can produce flurries/snow showers.  However, if this scenario does occur, it's NOT how we get big snows in Arkansas.  Once again, we're talking long range so this can and will likely change.

Bottom line, cold is coming with a transitional rain Monday into Tuesday.  I suspect the GFS is up to no good and will end up being wrong, but it's worth watching.  With arctic air in place, anything can happen.

The GFS valid Wednesday at midnight does show the cold air catching up to the moisture as it exits.  Once again, until there's consistency and the Euro shows it, I consider it unlikely to happen. This is courtesy of
The Euro courtesy of  It has ONLY rain and it ends late Tuesday before the air cold enough arrives.  This is a more likely scenario.
Courtesy of  This is late next week and the disturbance in the northerly flow.  IF this does happen, it would be light snow showers/flurries.  NOT how we get big snows in Arkansas.  Since this is considered long range, it's considered unlikely to occur, but it's worth watching for sure!  

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