Saturday, March 17, 2018

Hail No! Sunday Severe Possible

We don't want a repeat of last weekend and at this point (Saturday night), it does not appear that will happen.  The main threat from any storms Sunday will be hail and maybe damaging winds.  There was some interesting information released from our local NWS office about how rare that hail was last weekend.  Since 1980, only 2% of all hail reports in Arkansas were 3'' in diameter or greater.  I have received several pictures of damaged roofs and cars.  We will likely not know the true extent of the damage for several months and I suspect it will be in the millions of dollars. 

A front will stay near the Louisiana border.  It's along and south of this boundary which will have the most unstable air.  For at least a brief time Monday morning, some of the instability could creep into southern Arkansas.  In the meantime, any storm which develops Sunday will be capable of producing hail, but not the size we had last weekend.  Damaging winds will be possible if that boundary moves further north into Southern Arkansas.  

We'll see strong warming Monday ahead of a batch of cooler air.  I have included a chance for a few showers Tuesday as a pocket of cold air aloft moves across the state.  While the upper levels look favorable for snow, the surface temperatures will be way too warm.  If this would have come in a month ago, we would be talking about snow.  

Slight risk Sunday for portions of southern Arkansas.  The main threats will be hail and wind.  You can never discount a tornado completely, but it looks very low.
3:30 PM simulated radar has a round of rain and storms crossing the state from southwest to northeast.  The main threats at this time appear to be marginally severe hail (1'' in diameter) and lightning.

We'll see how far north this front gets early Monday morning.  One or two storms could get going and it would pose a hail and wind threat if it did.

After early morning showers Monday, we'll clear out with readings soaring into the 70s to near 80.  A batch of cool air will move in late Monday into Tuesday along with a few showers.  Once again, upper level conditions look good for snow, but it will be way too warm at the surface.  ( insert sigh here).

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