Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Another Arkansas Snow

10 PM Wednesday Update... You could hear the confusion on twitter once the 00Z NAM came out.  It cut back on the snow amounts for northwest Arkansas, but continued with around 1'' for central Arkansas.  The GFS this evening continues to stay the course with accumulations for the NW half of the state and central sections seeing 1'' maybe some spots up to 2''. 

As we have said here from the very beginning, this is NOT the snowstorm from Sunday January 9th.  The highest amounts should remain in the Ozarks.  I'm still looking at rain showers in the morning turning over to snow around Noon to 1 PM in the metro area.  Most of it will be done by 5 or 6 PM.

For those of you wanting more snow,  there are indications of another system Sunday and Monday.  It's still in the long range, but it does look promising for some sort of wintry weather. 

Remember to send your snow pictures to photo@katv.com

4:25 PM Wednesday Update... The new afternoon version of the NAM says Little Rock should expect 1.7''.  This models says it will start as rain around 10-noon, then mix with snow during the 12-1 PM hour.  The precipitation will change to snow around 1 PM and last until almost 6 PM.  THIS IS ONLY A MODEL.  I wanted to point this out because I still feel this is a one inch snow for Little Rock with it possibly reaching 2''.  The highest snow amounts should still occur across the mountains of northwest Arkansas.

I was driving around this afternoon and realized all the sand and salt still on the roads.  I wonder if that will help keep them wet when all this starts.  The models continue to show temperatures hovering right around 32-33 degrees Thursday afternoon. Check out the NAM model from its 18Z run.

18Z NAM

10:15 AM Wednesday Update... The 12Z NAM went bonkers with snow totals in Little Rock as it shows around 3-3.5 inches.  A preliminary look at the 12Z GFS indicates around 1''.  I think a blend of these two models is a good course to follow right now with a 1-2'' possibility in central Arkansas.  This is in no way our final forecast!  I agree with Paul_The_Wxguru that the dynamics of the system don't really support the NAM forecast, BUT it did do a good job with the last snow once within 24 hours of the event.  So basically, even within one day, there are disagreements which will make this forecast a tough one.  Both models agree it's the Ozarks which will see several inches of snow.  Once we get into Sunday night and Monday, yet another system COULD bring a wintry mix to the state.   I don't remember a parade of systems like this since the 1980s... what a winter if that happens!  Thanks for reading the Weather Blog...  We are your ticket to BIG weather events.  Check out the latest NAM below and the video blog discussion.

12Z Wednesday NAM Snow forecast





Everything is still coming together for a north Arkansas snow.  The question remains... how far south does the snow go and how much accumulates?  Remember, we said that if forecasts go wrong it's because the cold air is stronger.   The models continue to trend in that direction.  Check out the video and the maps below!  Remember, these maps are not forecasts, only pieces of the weather puzzle.

6 AM Thursday GFS Rain central and south.  Snow north

10AM Thursday... snow line coming south
Rain south with snow north half by Noon

3 PM Thursday.  Snow northern 2/3 of the state
06Z GFS showing highest amounts in the Ozarks.  1-2'' central
06Z NAM showing highest amounts across the Ozarks.  1-2 inches central
Exclusive Futurecast showing under 1'' central.

13 comments:

Will said...

Sweet spot this time is going to be Drasco! I'm thinking this is going to be one of those 1-2 inch snows that turns out to be a nice 3-5 incher.......Where you at SnowbirdBob??

Cumulus Maximus said...

greetings fellow bloggers. i guess you could say i have been trolling as i have been checking the models and blog all winter season but have not jumped to the comment section yet this winter. todd posted about not seeing a train of storms like what has set up this month since the 1980's and it instantly peeked my interest. i am about todds age and i vividly remember what winter was like in the late 70's and 80's. if you listen to joe bastardi on accuweather he talks a great deal about climate cycles and how he feels we could be entering another cold cycle similar to the 50's to 80's. that is certainly encouraging and makes a great deal of sense if you can past his prediction of no winter for the midsouth and much of the country this year. perhaps he consulted with hugh prior to making his official forecast. global warming in my opinion is a farce and i hope that the next few decades are more like the ones that initiated my interest in weather. bring on this current winter weather event and dont be ashamed to be a weather geek. it certainly feels like the christmas week storm in 2004 that surprised most.

Anonymous said...

Just looked at the 12Z GFS on the model page and it looks as though the amounts have increased with it as well?

Jeff said...

Yeah Todd looks like the GFS and NAM snow fall totals during the 12z run are a little higher in the Little Rock area. 2-4 inches?

Eric said...

How come the weather channel has snow and a wintry mix for little rock on sun and mon with temps in the 30s for highs but nws in north little rock has rain and highs well into the 40s someone is way off one way or the other.

Anonymous said...

Todd, I have lived in Arkansas most of my life (except for the 8 years of perpetual spring/summer I spent in Houston) so I know forecasting weather here can be quite a challenge. I have been an avid weather watcher for a long time. My family used to laugh at me for taping interesting events from the weather channel to watch when I got home from work! I was overjoyed to discover your blog last year. I have learned so much. I used to say "Boy, how did the weatherman get that so wrong", now I say "Boy, the models must have missed something"! So regardless of whether we get rain or snow, 1 inch or 5 inches, I appreciate all the effort that you put into keeping us informed. I love it! I now watch channel 7 for my news and weather. I think your blog is probably responsible for bringing quite a few viewers to channel 7...hope your bosses appreciate you.....Thanks!

Susan in Heber Springs

leah said...

Totally agree with Susan in Heber Springs! I am a "weather geek" and I check in on this blog several times a day. When my friends and coworkers ask me about what I think the weather is going to do, I always say "let me see what Todd says". LOL!

The WeatherNinja said...

A little tip when looking at the NAM and GFS snowfall maps. Remember these maps are looking out 84 hours for the NAM and 120 hours for the GFS. So when for instance the 12z GFS shows more snow for parts of Arkansas, it is most likely taking into consideration the potential snowfall for Sunday/Monday as it would be the 120 hour window. The 84 hour NAM would not have this injested into it's forecast yet. If you compared the same timeframe you they may or may not come to similar solutions. Just something to be aware of.

Anonymous said...

Nice video blog, Todd. I don't know about a Snowfall, AR, but there is a Snowball, AR just a little southwest of Marshall. Scary thought, but rumor is that Charles Manson owns some property in the area (or has relatives that do).

Anonymous said...

SSSSWWWWWWEEEEETTTTT!!!! Lovin the forecast and i especially like the NAM it has a bullseye over Pine Bluff to get up to 3 inches of snow thanks weather ninja for pointing out the 120 hour time frame. I know its just a model but it's at least something to get excited about. I hope the north gets their snow tomorrow and we get some more Sunday night. Sorry i haven't been on here much and i'm really sorry i missed out on the shirts but i've had a sick kiddo to take care of. Everyone be safe and have fun!!!!

PineBluffGirl

Jason H said...

Still hoping and thinking we will see around 3 inches in Pocahontas, and maybe another 2-3 inches Sunday night/Monday!!! All you Weather geeks look me up on Twitter @JasonBHampton. Follow me and Ill follow you, fair deal huh?:-)

nlrweatherman said...

really hoping these temps take a nose dive, I have seen storms where we sit at 35 degrees and miss the snow and get cold rain

Anonymous said...

As soon as the low passes to our south late morning thats when it will pull the cold air down from the north and will change rain to snow sometime noonish.