As we have said here from the very beginning, this is NOT the snowstorm from Sunday January 9th. The highest amounts should remain in the Ozarks. I'm still looking at rain showers in the morning turning over to snow around Noon to 1 PM in the metro area. Most of it will be done by 5 or 6 PM.
For those of you wanting more snow, there are indications of another system Sunday and Monday. It's still in the long range, but it does look promising for some sort of wintry weather.
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4:25 PM Wednesday Update... The new afternoon version of the NAM says Little Rock should expect 1.7''. This models says it will start as rain around 10-noon, then mix with snow during the 12-1 PM hour. The precipitation will change to snow around 1 PM and last until almost 6 PM. THIS IS ONLY A MODEL. I wanted to point this out because I still feel this is a one inch snow for Little Rock with it possibly reaching 2''. The highest snow amounts should still occur across the mountains of northwest Arkansas.
I was driving around this afternoon and realized all the sand and salt still on the roads. I wonder if that will help keep them wet when all this starts. The models continue to show temperatures hovering right around 32-33 degrees Thursday afternoon. Check out the NAM model from its 18Z run.
10:15 AM Wednesday Update... The 12Z NAM went bonkers with snow totals in Little Rock as it shows around 3-3.5 inches. A preliminary look at the 12Z GFS indicates around 1''. I think a blend of these two models is a good course to follow right now with a 1-2'' possibility in central Arkansas. This is in no way our final forecast! I agree with Paul_The_Wxguru that the dynamics of the system don't really support the NAM forecast, BUT it did do a good job with the last snow once within 24 hours of the event. So basically, even within one day, there are disagreements which will make this forecast a tough one. Both models agree it's the Ozarks which will see several inches of snow. Once we get into Sunday night and Monday, yet another system COULD bring a wintry mix to the state. I don't remember a parade of systems like this since the 1980s... what a winter if that happens! Thanks for reading the Weather Blog... We are your ticket to BIG weather events. Check out the latest NAM below and the video blog discussion.
|12Z Wednesday NAM Snow forecast|
Everything is still coming together for a north Arkansas snow. The question remains... how far south does the snow go and how much accumulates? Remember, we said that if forecasts go wrong it's because the cold air is stronger. The models continue to trend in that direction. Check out the video and the maps below! Remember, these maps are not forecasts, only pieces of the weather puzzle.
|6 AM Thursday GFS Rain central and south. Snow north|
|10AM Thursday... snow line coming south|
|Rain south with snow north half by Noon|
|3 PM Thursday. Snow northern 2/3 of the state|
|06Z GFS showing highest amounts in the Ozarks. 1-2'' central|
|06Z NAM showing highest amounts across the Ozarks. 1-2 inches central|
|Exclusive Futurecast showing under 1'' central.|