The latest version of the NAM continues to cast SOME doubts on how the system will unfold Sunday. It doesn't bring in the precip. until late in the day. The latest from this one model shows a general 1 to maybe 4 inches across central and eastern areas. Unfortunately, it leaves out southern Arkansas, but remember, it's only Thursday and this is only one piece of the weather puzzle.
|Snowfall accumulations from the 00Z NAM|
I will have a full update Friday morning.
11:30 AM Thursday Update... Yep, the GFS is starting to look more and more like the Euro and I suspect the Euro will begin to look like the GFS. I still can't believe the extreme situation the Euro painted last night with 1'' water. I think this is somewhere in the middle for central Arkansas. I WANT TO CAUTION ALL OF YOU... IT'S ONLY THURSDAY, THIS CAN VERY EASILY CHANGE!
WxGuru2u made a very good point that if heavy rainfall develops along the Gulf coast, it can rob some of the moisture further north. It's one of those things that must be watched over the coming days.
Below is the 12Z GFS total 120 hour snowfall. Remember, this is only one piece of data and not a forecast. It shows a very healthy south and central Arkansas snow.
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|12Z GFS snow 120 hour snow totals|
Colder air will filter into the state Saturday and Saturday night as the low pressure approaches from the west. The models will have a better handle on the track of this low once it moves onto the west coast of the United States Friday.
While we have a storm and cold air, there is NO guarantee of snowfall for anyone, but the chance is elevated.
After that, it may be the northern 1/2 of Arkansas with a some energy and a strong surge of arctic air Monday and Tuesday. This will be LIGHT, but with very cold air in place, snowfall ratios could be higher. Again, the situation Monday and Tuesday is not a typical set up for significant snow, but I can see a situation where flurries and light snow can whiten things up. The cold air really settles in at this point taking highs into the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teens across the state. NOT historic cold, but frigid air for sure.
Will we get into the single digits at the official recording station in Little Rock? The last time this happened was February 4th, 1996 (15 years ago) when the mercury fell to 5 degrees. That is on the table next week IF three conditions are met: Clear skies, NO wind, and snow cover. With only 2 of the 3, it's very difficult to do, but possible.
|0ZGFS shows the low in the northern Gulf with wintry weather over southern AR. Everyone north of the blue line is 32 degrees or colder|
|06Z GFS showing a similar set up by noon Sunday. The freezing line drops south through the afternoon|
|Euro's northerly track with rain to snow as the upper level energy pulls into the state. This shows heavy precip in the blue. The dashed blue line is a good indicator of the rain/snow line. This map is valid 6 PM Sunday|
|Euro map valid midnight Monday showing all the precipitation in the form of snow and some of it heavy This is just one piece of data.|
|This is the Euro's total snowfall with accumulating snow across much of southern and central Arkansas|