Thursday, January 06, 2011

Snowy Sunday???

9 PM Thursday Update... Thanks everyone for a great night on Arkansas Weather Live.  It was fun interacting with everyone and it was nice to see all the weather enthusiasts across the state join in!

The latest version of the NAM continues to cast SOME doubts on how the system will unfold Sunday.  It doesn't bring in the precip. until late in the day.  The latest from this one model shows a general 1 to maybe 4 inches across central and eastern areas.  Unfortunately, it leaves out southern Arkansas, but remember, it's only Thursday and this is only one piece of the weather puzzle.

Snowfall accumulations from the 00Z NAM




I will have a full update Friday morning.

11:30 AM Thursday Update... Yep, the GFS is starting to look more and more like the Euro and I suspect the Euro will begin to look like the GFS.  I still can't believe the extreme situation the Euro painted last night with 1'' water.  I think this is somewhere in the middle for central Arkansas.  I WANT TO CAUTION ALL OF YOU... IT'S ONLY THURSDAY, THIS CAN VERY EASILY CHANGE!
WxGuru2u made a very good point that if heavy rainfall develops along the Gulf coast, it can rob some of the moisture further north.  It's one of those things that must be watched over the coming days.

Below is the 12Z GFS total 120 hour snowfall.  Remember, this is only one piece of data and not a forecast.  It shows a very healthy south and central Arkansas snow.

Don't forget Arkansas Weather Live is at 7 PM right here on the Arkansas Weather Blog.  Tell your friends about it.  We will have a ton of fun.  You will be able to contact us on skype.  Our name on it is Arkansas Weather Blog

12Z GFS snow 120 hour snow totals
In the world of weather, nothing is set in stone until it happens and this situation is no different.  The POTENTIAL is there for significant snow somewhere in Arkansas Sunday.  When I say significant, I mean more than 2 inches.  The only real question that still needs to be answered is the track this area of low pressure takes.  The consistent Euro has shown a more northerly track while the GFS has been further south.  I have noticed the GFS trending a bit to the north over the past few runs of the model.  Other modeling also supports the Euro's more northerly track.  I think the Euro precipitation output is to the extreme while the GFS shows much less.  Usually in these situations it's somewhere in between.   It's only Thursday so much will change with this forecast, but at this point, it's southern Arkansas that stands the best chance for seeing anything frozen.  The question remains, how far north does the low track and can it bring the precipitation shield north. 

Colder air will filter into the state Saturday and Saturday night as the low pressure approaches from the west.  The models will have a better handle on the track of this low once it moves onto the west coast of the United States Friday.

While we have a storm and cold air, there is NO guarantee of snowfall for anyone, but the chance is elevated.

After that, it may be the northern 1/2 of Arkansas with a some energy and a strong surge of arctic air Monday and Tuesday.  This will be LIGHT, but with very cold air in place, snowfall ratios could be higher.  Again, the situation Monday and Tuesday is not a typical set up for significant snow, but I can see a situation where flurries and light snow can whiten things up.  The cold air really settles in at this point taking highs into the 20s and 30s with lows in the single digits and teens across the state.  NOT historic cold, but frigid air for sure.

Will we get into the single digits at the official recording station in Little Rock?  The last time this happened was February 4th, 1996 (15 years ago) when the mercury fell to 5 degrees.  That is on the table next week IF three conditions are met: Clear skies, NO wind, and snow cover.  With only 2 of the 3, it's very difficult to do, but possible.

0ZGFS shows the low in the northern Gulf with wintry weather over southern AR.  Everyone north of the blue line is 32 degrees or colder

06Z GFS showing a similar set up by noon Sunday.  The freezing line drops south through the afternoon
Euro's northerly track with rain to snow as the upper level energy pulls into the state.  This shows heavy precip in the blue.  The dashed blue line is a good indicator of the rain/snow line.  This map is valid 6 PM Sunday

Euro map valid midnight Monday showing all the precipitation in the form of snow and some of it heavy  This is just one piece of data.

This is the Euro's total snowfall with accumulating snow across much of southern and central Arkansas

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

nice post todd but in the last pic how much snow is that in the blue?

Jason H said...

Going to be a SHARP cut-off on the snow in Northern sections. Right now it doesnt look good for me in Randolph, but we all know things could, and will change....hopefully for my better and Southern Ar worse. Right now I feel the heaviest will be a little North of what model are saying. LR-Memphis, Northern MS looks good for 5-8.*Wishcaster*

Eric said...

I know Todd in your line of work being in the publics eye u have to be very careful of not getting to excited about the possibilities because nothing is a sure bet. I notice memphis is talking snow likely sun nite an monday for them an according to the gfs they get zip. Seems they are favoring the euro. Lets hope if this pans out central arkansas can get something out of it. I have lived here long enough to know dont believe anything until it actually happens.

dotnetengineer said...

America Could Face Coldest January in 25 Years

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/43933/bastardi-january-could-be-cold.asp

Yuck. "...places from Chicago to Denver could have one or two days with high temperatures below zero during this time. People in New York City may be looking at one day with highs in the teens, while temperatures potentially fail to rise out of the 20s in Dallas, Texas, and Jackson, Miss., for a day or two..."

jimmylee42 said...

Guru-

On your comment about a heavy snow in 96 or 97. I looked up info from NWS and found a 7" snow on Jan 22 1995 for LR less for NLR 4". On Feb 13 1997 there was a snow of 4.7 inches for LR and 5.5" for NLR. Maybe one of those was a surprise heavy snow.

jamie from watson chapel said...

hopefully Pine Bluff/ Watson Chapel will get in on the significant side of the snow this time around. Todd; you have done an awesome job with the blog and looking forward to tonight

tboyce1979 said...

WHooohooo!!! We just got our possible hazardous weather e-mail at work from John Robinson of the NWS and that's all the confirmation I need!! Let it snow!!!!

Shack said...

C'mon EURO!

Shack

Chad Gardner said...

Pine Bluff getting snow is seriously going to blow my prediction for the weather contest. I was giving PB a whopping 0" of snow when I was doing my in-depth prediction math...

If this event materializes though, I'll gladly take a miss on my forecast so that the south can enjoy a good snow event.

Anonymous said...

Just out of curiosity, but what does the dark pink and light blue means as far as accumultaions? Im right on the line of blue and dark pink lol.

Jason H said...

Crap, I got to ref som High-School basketball, so I'll miss the fun. I hope I wake up tomorrow morning to see models trending a little further North!

Brent said...

I just checked the soundings for LIT and based on the latest GFS the QPF has now increased to .41 inches of liquid all in the form of snow! Thats at least a few inches!

ash said...

Really excited about the snow! Glad the NWS is predicting it for us as well! Hope to be tuning in tonite. Oh yea.. Todd- you and NWS have the same title on Sunday event: Snowy Sunday? lol

Ash said...

Todd or any other weather geeks out there lol..
have yall head of the NORLUN trough. I just read about it on accuweather about how the system can just stall out and stay stationary and produce lots of snow. Just wondering if this trough comes through Ark or if its only for up north.. curious.
Thanks
Ashley

Anonymous said...

where's snowbird bob??

weatherninjette

Caleb said...

Hi everyone,
I was just wondering any body can answer, What will it take for a winter storm watch to be issued by the NWS and if things keep on going like they are would they issue a winter stom watch?

tboyce1979 said...

weatherninjette...I was just fixing to post the same question!! HAHA!!

leah said...

Just read a special weather statement regarding the snow on NWS Little Rock website. Sure does look like snow to me!!! I hope so anyway!!!

snowenthusiast said...

My predictions:
Line north of Ft.Smith to Clinton and to Memphis 1-2 inches
South of that line mentioned above and north of Mena-Pine bluff-Helena 5-7 inches and south of that 4-6 inches.
I am 100% wishcasting but who knows

nlrweatherman said...

Winter Storm Watches would most likely go out tomorrow afternoon, I am hoping the current scenario pans out

Anonymous said...

If the Low goes further north than What there predicting im gonna have to go with 2 to 4 inches in northern arkansas, 3 to 5 in entral and around 2 to 4 in southern arkansas. Now does anybody on here think the Low pressure will go a lil bit further north than what they are saying??

Anonymous said...

Y'all keep saying snow in the southern part of the state. I live in El Dorado, which is pretty much as far South as you can go (except for Junction City). From the maps I've seen it looks like Pine Bluff area is as far south as it will go. Will it be rain or snow here in El Dorado. We WANT snow for a change. Thanks, and great job Todd.

Shack said...

Man, I am GOOD, I predicted early this week the blog would get busy if models stayed in line, ta-da.

I know, I know, I went out on a limb with that call ;) (Sarcasm in case anyone missed it :) )


I have to go to the grocery tonight anyway, I'll let you know how busy it is already. Gotta go so I can be back before 7.

Shack

Shack said...

I was trying to get this answered

"8:03 goofygadgetgeek: RUSSELLVILLE????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

they were posting it a bunch.

nlrweatherman said...

EVEN THOUGH MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO AGREEMENT WITH THIS WINTER
STORM...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS AS IS USUALLY ok, I just saw this from the NWS in Memphis and was wondering if amounts could get even higher --- THE CASE WITH MOST WINTER WEATHER
EVENTS ACROSS THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE PLACEMENT OF THE DYNAMICS AT ALL LEVELS WITH THIS STORM ARE
EERILY SIMILAR TO A HEAVY SNOWSTORM THAT AFFECTED THE MIDSOUTH
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY IN 1988. THIS STORM PRODUCED 6-10
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD.