Friday, March 11, 2011

Drought, Warmth, and Severe Possibilities

Since the record amount of rain in 2009, Little Rock is running a rainfall deficit of 15.24 inches with no end to the dry conditions in sight.  Yes, we will get some rain, but nothing too significant.  Honestly, you don't want to make up that deficit in a short amount of time because then you're getting into the possibilities for flooding.  The rain coming in Sunday and Monday should be less than one inch.  After that, the models do indicate a big blast of WARM air should take control of the central United States.  How long that lasts is up for debate.  A couple of the long range computer models are also hinting at a more active pattern developing the following week which means we will always have to watch out for the possibilities for strong/severe weather.  Check out the maps below.

This is the overnight run of the Euro indicating warm air next Thursday.  With a surface low developing in the TX and OK panhandle, a warm southwesterly flow develops.  You can see the black lines (isobars) around that low and the surface high in the Gulf.  The red dashed lines are the 1000mb to 500mb thickness levels.  All this is indicating is the atmosphere is warming up!
There are model differences and the long range forecast will change.  This is the Euro on Sunday, March 20th indicating a large storm system off the California coast.  If this translates towards the east, our weather pattern will become active with storms possible.
The Canadian shows the same storm, but further south.  Again, we'll watch to see how this behaves.  It's the long term so details will change quite a bit.  Given the time of year, thunderstorms will be possible IF it moves our direction.
This is the latest Drought Monitor from the NWS released March 8th.  The drought is severe to Extreme for the southern half of the state.

1 comment:

jimmylee42 said...

The record for earliest late freeze is safe for LR as they had a 32 degree reading yesterday. The record for NLR could still be broken as they have not reached freezing since Feb 11.

Looking forward to some perfect temps this afternoon out at Wye mountain.