Tuesday, June 14, 2011

How Do You Spell Relief?

I spell it C-O-O-L   F-R-O-N-T

Am I jumping the gun here a little bit??  Yes, probably.  The models have hinted at cooler air by the end of the month, but when I saw the morning run of the European model, I jumped up and down.  For those of you who read the blog on a regular basis, you know I don't have much trust in the long range forecast so don't get too excited about cool air.  Maybe just the thought of it will put an extra spring in your step today.

The strong ridge of high pressure shows signs of leaving and being replaced with a trough of low pressure which would allow air masses from Canada to move southward.  How far south, well this time of year, it's difficult to do that, but if the ridge is out of the way, it's possible!  This would also open the door to some rain chances.

Again, don't get too excited just yet.  I will keep you updated here on the Arkansas Weather Blog, twitter (katv_weather) and my facebook fan page!

Current pattern at 500 mb from the European model shows a ridge of high pressure across the southern United States.  The main storm track is north of us.  This is our current heat wave.
This is the European surface chart valid Friday June 24th at 7 AM.  It shows a strong high pressure area coming out of Canada into the plains.  The flow of air around this is from the north/northeast which would usher in cooler than average temperatures and drier air.  The front makes it south of the state.  That's very difficult to do in the summer time so let's wait and see what happens.
The European model at 500 mb valid Friday June 24th at 7 AM.  The ridge has been replaced by an area of low pressure aloft.  IF this happens,  BYE BYE HEAT!!!!!

No comments: