EXTREME Hail Video

Thanks to Bucky Graham with Arkansas Extreme Storm Chasers for allowing us to post his exclusive hail video here.  He shot this near De Witt Sunday afternoon. None of this material can be redistributed without the permission of Bucky Graham and Arkansas Extreme Storm Chasers

There are some amazing pictures below as well including an up close look at the funnel cloud which eventually became a brief tornado near Tichnor.

He has a facebook page you should check out.  CLICK HERE

WARNING... YOU MAY FIND SOME OF THE LANGUAGE OFFENSIVE.

Check out that funnel!!!

If he had a dollar for every hailstone, he would have won the lottery. LOL

That's a smashed car!!!

A few dents!!

We are going into our secondary severe weather season.  For spotter training by the National Weather Service... CLICK HERE FOR UPCOMING CLASSES

Stormy Sunday. Viewer Pictures

It's not too often we get severe weather in September and it's not related to a tropical system.  Usually our secondary severe weather season doesn't start until late fall or early winter.  Let's hope we're not starting a trend!

The National Weather Service will survey damage in Tichnor in southeast Arkansas Monday.  A tornado warning was in effect and there was a report of a tree down along highway 44.  Also, at one point, law enforcement reported a funnel cloud.  If the weather service determines a tornado did touch down, it would be the 73rd so far this year in Arkansas. The average is 33.

The weather looks quiet over the next few days.  Monday should be fantastic with MUCH drier air and plenty of sunshine.  Temperatures will be mild and in the mid and upper 70s for highs.  After a brief warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday, another front will take temperatures down again at the end of the week.  That front will not have much moisture to work with so rain chances will be very low to non existent.

Thanks for all the pictures received on facebook, twitter, and email.

Altheimer Hail

Large hail in De Witt

Wall cloud seen from De Witt

Lowering near Earle

More large hail near De Witt

Lowering near Tichnor

Hail covering the ground near White Hall

A Few Storms Sunday

1 PM Saturday Update... The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of central and eastern Arkansas to a slight risk for severe weather Sunday.  This does include the Little Rock metro area.
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We could have a round of strong storms Sunday afternoon and I'm not going to rule out the possibility of a severe thunderstorm as well.  The main threat will be wind and hail as the Storm Prediction Center is also watching portions of the Natural State for an upgrade to a slight risk.

There's a strong area of low pressure aloft located near the Great Lakes.  This low will make a move south sending a strong piece of energy into the region.  A frontal boundary will enter the state Sunday morning and press to the south.  Ahead of the front, if enough sunshine is present, high levels of instability will develop with south winds bringing in Gulf of Mexico moisture.  Most of the models agree the highest chance for rain and storms will be north and east of a line from Fayetteville to Little Rock down to El Dorado.  Rainfall amounts will generally be 2'' or less.

Check out these maps from our exclusive model "Futurecast".

This is the upper level pattern indicating a strong, closed area of low pressure aloft spinning close to the state.  The flow around this will drive a piece of energy into the state.

Ahead of the front, the combination of heat and humidity will bring high levels of instability sufficient for the formation of strong storms.  Some could be severe if this occurs.

This is a good indication as to who has the best chance for rainfall.  It's generally across much of the state except the far west.  Most amounts will be less than 2'' where thunderstorms do occur.

Drought And Upcoming Fall Pattern

I received this information from John Robinson with the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.  The drought is forecast to either persist or even intensify.

Click to enlarge.  This is the U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook just released from the Climate Prediction Center

The attached graphic is the three-month drought outlook, which was
issued this morning by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction
Center.

For Arkansas, the news is not good.  For areas already in drought, the
drought is forecast to persist or intensify.  For parts of northeastern
and eastern Arkansas, drought is forecast to develop.

A moderate to strong La Nina weather pattern is forecast to occur as we
go from fall into winter.  (La Nina is a cooling of the waters in the
equatorial Pacific.  It causes a redirection of the jet stream in our
part of the world, and consequently affects the way weather systems
develop and move.)  In a La Nina pattern, it is common for Arkansas to
experience below-normal precipitation in the fall.

As we get into fall, we always have more weather systems come through
Arkansas that produce windy conditions.  Drought and windy weather will
cause an increase in fire danger.  As an example, over the Labor Day
weekend, we had some windy weather.  During that time, the Arkansas
Forestry Commission fought at least seven wildfires that burned more
than 100 acres each.  The largest fire consumed 670 acres and another
burned 500 acres.

A seasonal outlook cannot foresee what effect dying tropical storms or
hurricanes might have on Arkansas.  Thus, there is still a possibility
that a tropical system could cause widespread rain and have an effect on
the drought.  However, climatology suggests that as we move toward the
end of the tropical weather season (October and November), chances for a
tropical system affecting Arkansas begin to decrease markedly.


On a more personal note:  Everyone has probably heard that the drought
in Texas has resulted in virtually no forage for the cattle.
Consequently, hay is having to be trucked in from other areas.  On
Monday, another NWS employee and I traveled to Amity and Alpine in Clark
County on business.  As we came back up Interstate 30 from Arkadelphia,
we were amazed at the number of trucks on the interstate that were
hauling hay toward Texas.

John Robinson
 

New Tornado Statistics... Arkansas IS in Tornado Alley

We traditionally think of tornado alley as in the plains, but I think it's fair to say Arkansas is not only a part of it, but also in the heart of it according to new statistics released by the National Weather Service.

The new 30 year average indicates the annual number of tornadoes in Arkansas increased from 26 to 33.  Meteorologist John Robinson with the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock says there are 2 likely causes for the increase.  First, there is more public awareness of severe weather, thus people are more likely to report tornadoes.  The second reason is due to the National Weather Service increased efforts to verify tornadoes by going our and examining storm damage.

Take a look at this first map...

Average number of tornadoes annually by state

It's easy to see most states in tornado alley have more tornadoes than Arkansas over the past 30 years, but is this an accurate indicator of historic tornadic activity?

Now look at this 2nd map....

Average number of tornadoes per 10,000 square miles

It's logical that Texas would have more tornadoes than all states because of its size.  However, if you look at the number per 10,000 square miles, Arkansas has more twisters than the Lone Star state.

A few years ago, meteorologist Ashley Walker worked on some important research.  He found out that portions of Arkansas are in what's called "Fatality Alley" meaning there are more deaths caused by tornadoes in sections of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama than any other place in the country.

Research from Meteorologist Walker Ashley with Northern Illinois University

If the new statistics from the National Weather Service and research from Walker Ashley aren't a wake up call, I don't know what is?    Here are a few of reasons portions of the mid south are in "fatality alley"

• Mobile home density. The NIU meteorologist said 44 percent of all fatalities during tornadoes occur in mobile homes, compared to 25 percent in permanent houses. The southeast United States has the highest percentage of mobile-home stock compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. “Mobile homes make up 30 to 40 percent of the housing stock in some counties in the deep South,” Ashley said. “By far, mobile homes are the most vulnerable structures in a tornadic situation.”
• Nighttime tornadoes. The southeast United States has a higher likelihood of killer nighttime tornadoes. Most states within this region have greater percentages of tornado fatalities occurring at night than other states.“I just completed another study that shows tornadoes from the midnight to sunrise period are 2.5 times as likely to kill as daytime events,” Ashley said. Further, nocturnal tornadoes are more difficult to spot, and people are more likely to be asleep when warnings are issued.
• Forested areas. Whereas regions within the Great Plains by definition are lacking in tree cover, the mid-South region is more forested, leading to reduced visibility both for the public and spotters.
• Early season storms. Storms that occur before the national peak in the severe storm season, which spans May and June, may catch people off guard during a tornado event.
• Complacency. In contrast to other parts of the country, the South lacks a focused “tornado season,” which can lead to complacency. “In the South, people think tornado alley is where you get tornadoes,” Ashley said. “That sort of perception also leads to complacency, which in turn leads to higher fatality rates.” He points out that Oklahoma is known worldwide for the frequency of its tornadoes. Yet the state has fewer fatalities than Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi.

The media and the National Weather Service must intensify efforts to save lives.  I don't want to underestimate the current efforts because I know many work hard and long hours to communicate life saving information.  New ideas and initiatives must be explored to change this unfortunate fact of life in the mid south. 

Blast of Fall Air Coming

For all of you in the summer contest who did not win, the "WeatherNinja" wants me to give away the prizes he won.  I will draw for two winners.  The prize package will be 2 Golden Corral tickets and a blog shirt for each winner. Stay tuned for this!  Thanks WeatherNinja!

Now onto the HUGE weather story this week.  As I said over and over last weekend on the air, this week will feature a temperature roller coaster with highs in the 90s then in the 70s.  Lo and behold, the NAM wants to make it even cooler with readings not getting out of the 60s Thursday.  A very strong early season front will bring an October chill in September.  As far as rain, I really don't see much of that.  I do think plenty of cloud cover and an easterly wind behind the front will bring an extra chill to the air.  The only thing missing will be leaves changing colors, but that won't be too long from now. I don't think we'll be able to get into record low territory due to the expected cloudy skies.  This will not allow overnight lows to drop too much, but those clouds will keep highs even cooler.  Temperatures will begin to moderate as we go into the weekend and the cool, Canadian area of high pressure moves away.

Below are maps from the overnight run of the NAM

Tuesday high temperatures look very warm to hot.  We should hit the 90s while Texas bakes once again in the 100s.  Cooler air to the north starts to push into the United States.

Wednesday still looks warm with 80s and 90s across the state.  The leading edge of the cool air is poised to move into Arkansas.  There will be nearly a 50-60 degree difference between summer in Texas and 40s along the front range of the Rockies in Colorado and Wyoming.  The seasons are changing!

By Thursday, the very cool air is entrenched in Arkansas with readings only making it into the 60s and 70s for highs and plenty of clouds.  The 100s are gone in Texas with the remaining summer air pressed along the Gulf Coast States.

More cool air on Friday is expected, but as the high shifts to the east, a return flow will try to move that warm air along the coast back to the north by this weekend.

Temperature Roller Coaster

Thanks Arkansas!  We hit another big milestone here on the blog a few days ago.... 900,000 hits since July of 2010.  I think we should surpass 1 million within the next 2 months.  I can't thank you enough for reading our weather blog!

There really hasn't been much to blog about lately and I'm not complaining.  We deserve some quiet and nice weather!  Usually this is the time of year when we can go back and forth with our temperatures as the seasons fight it out.  Cold air has been building at the higher latitudes and the jet stream is getting energized as it battles the remaining hot air of summer.  Of course, the cooler air wins eventually, but it results in a temperature roller coaster of sorts.  We will warm up to around 90 again next week, but it shouldn't last too long as yet another frontal boundary delivers another shot of pleasant fall air.  I took a quick look at the long range GFS numbers and it indicates we'll be back into the 70s for highs by next Thursday

Let's talk about "Nate".  On Thursday, there was some concern he would turn north and affect the southern United States.  The picture became clearer last night and it appears the storm will make a turn to the west and affect Mexico.  I know many in Texas were hoping from rain, but a tropical system can make you go from extreme drought to extreme flooding.

This is the European model from Thursday night and it's valid for late next Wednesday.  This indicates a front pressing through the state with Canadian high pressure building into the Dakotas.  This will bring a much cooler easterly to northeasterly wind flow at the surface.  Early week temperatures in the 90s will drop 15-20 degrees by Thursday.

24 hours later on Thursday, the high is really building into the state with very nice weather!

The Tropical Prediction Center shows Nate moving into Mexico as a Hurricane late in the weekend.

The A/C Finally Gets A Break!

Confidence is high we will get our first feel of fall next week.  The picture is becoming clearer how this will all unfold as Tropical Storm "Lee" churns in the Gulf of Mexico.  I know portions of the state need rain, especially the south, but we don't want any part of the incredible deluge portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi will receive over the next few days.  Some data suggests more than 10'' of rain will fall, and in some places it could exceed 20''.  That's devastating.  While I was driving back from Florida earlier in the week, we drove through northeastern Louisiana and southern Arkansas.  It's bone dry!  Farmers had their tractors in the fields and dust was everywhere.  I saw 4 incredible looking dust devils while driving along I-20 near Tallulah. 

The big question yet to be answered is how far north the heavy rain shield will advance into Arkansas or does it even make it into the state.  Right now, I think there's going to be a very strong gradient between the heavy tropical rain and the dry air.  This could be the type of situation where some places get several inches while just 20-40 miles away, rainfall amounts will be very low or non-existent.

At the same time Lee comes out of the Gulf, a front will sweep in from the north.  High pressure building into the state will funnel in a northeasterly wind flow.  This will drop temperatures and humidity values to their lowest levels in months!  Winds should be brisk and out of the north-northeast around 20 mph.  It's very likely to have highs at the beginning of next week in the 70s and lows in the 50s.  If the winds diminish enough, northern Arkansas could see the first 40s of the season.  This will all come almost exactly one month after having the hottest day EVER in Little Rock (114 degrees).  Get excited!  I know I can't wait!  Check out the maps below.

The NAM indicates the rainfall from Lee will mainly affect areas east and southeast of Arkansas.

The GFS paints a different picture.  Some areas of southeast Arkansas into east central areas could see more than 5''.

By next Tuesday, Lee will be moving away as high pressure builds in from the north.  The difference in pressure will create a north-northeasterly wind which will be refreshing!