We could have a round of strong storms Sunday afternoon and I'm not going to rule out the possibility of a severe thunderstorm as well. The main threat will be wind and hail as the Storm Prediction Center is also watching portions of the Natural State for an upgrade to a slight risk.
There's a strong area of low pressure aloft located near the Great Lakes. This low will make a move south sending a strong piece of energy into the region. A frontal boundary will enter the state Sunday morning and press to the south. Ahead of the front, if enough sunshine is present, high levels of instability will develop with south winds bringing in Gulf of Mexico moisture. Most of the models agree the highest chance for rain and storms will be north and east of a line from Fayetteville to Little Rock down to El Dorado. Rainfall amounts will generally be 2'' or less.
Check out these maps from our exclusive model "Futurecast".
|This is the upper level pattern indicating a strong, closed area of low pressure aloft spinning close to the state. The flow around this will drive a piece of energy into the state.|
|Ahead of the front, the combination of heat and humidity will bring high levels of instability sufficient for the formation of strong storms. Some could be severe if this occurs.|
|This is a good indication as to who has the best chance for rainfall. It's generally across much of the state except the far west. Most amounts will be less than 2'' where thunderstorms do occur.|