Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Euro = Trick while the GFS = Treat

The cold, miserable rain expected Thursday has been discussed here thoroughly and it's time to move onto the next thing.  While most forecasts for Halloween are dry, there is one thing to watch.  The European has insisted a "cut-off" low will drift across the region providing some chance for rainfall (trick).  The GFS and other models say no way (treat)!  I'll go on the record right now and say I think there is a very high liklihood the European is wrong and we'll be dry for the little ghost and goblins.  Although, it is something worth watching over the next few days.

Before I get into the model data, we will be starting the 2011-2012 winter contest soon so keep checking back for your chance to enter.  The blog is about to rock and roll as winter approaches.  If you are a regular to the blog, you know how I feel about long term forecasts (past 7-10 days).  There is talk out there about the first half of winter being the roughest compared to the second part.  I want to remind you about yet another LaNina pattern which proved this false.  It was the winter of 2007-2008.  It may have been cold for the first part, but the second part was NOT easy.  January, February, and March brought some of the wildest swings in weather I have ever seen.  We had multiple, major severe weather outbreaks only to be followed up with 2 historic snows in March.  I want to caution everyone when reading long term outlooks that while the people make them use very sound reasoning.  There's only one person in the end who knows!

This is the latest GFS run from early Wednesday morning.  It shows high pressure at the surface keeping it nice and dry.  Perfect for Trick-or-Treaters!

And here is the latest Euro for that same time period.  It's completely different showing a large upper level system producing rain showers over portions of Arkansas.  This would be much colder and wetter.  Right now, it's worth noting this has NO other model support that I can find, but it's something to watch.  Like I said in the post above, this has very little chance of verifying!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Great observation Todd, I was kind of wondering that myself. At this point it will be a heads, or tails situation until the evening runs go tonight.

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