Severe Threat Today

As I have been saying, while there will be a chance for a few showers during the day, the best chance arrives late this afternoon into the evening as a front crosses the state.  There will be a developing line of storms with locally heavy rain and high winds the main threat.  Some hail can't be ruled out along with an isolated, brief tornado.  If conditions destabilize more than expected, then things could get a bit worse and that's why I'm monitoring it very closely.

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Below are maps from the 4km WRF showing simulated radar throughout the day in 2 hour increments.  This is only a model and it isn't perfect, but it does show the general idea.  The arrows indicate wind speed and direction at 10m. Also, I have included maps from the Storm Prediction Center.

This is noon today.  The WRF shows a few showers, but the main action is still in eastern Oklahoma

This is around 2 PM.  The line is forming across eastern OK.  Notice the winds behind the front in OK are out of the west and southwest while they are out of the south and southeast across Arkansas

This is 4 PM today.  Notice the cell in central Arkansas.  IF that forms, it will have to be watched carefully.  The main line is broken, but coming together along the border with AR and OK.  The front is pushing into the state at this point

This is 6 PM.  The line is just about to enter central AR.  Notice winds now out of the SE.  With enough instability and wind turning with height, this is why we must watch for isolated, brief tornadoes.

This is 8 PM.  The storms are now in central Arkansas.  Some could be severe with high wind and locally heavy rainfall as well.

At 10 PM, the line is pushing into eastern Arkansas.  The winds at the surface in central and western AR are now out of the west signifying frontal passage

At midnight, the storms are weakening and moving out of the state.

The SPC has most of AR under a slight risk for severe weather

This shows there is a 5% chance of a tornado in the brown shaded area within 25 miles of any given point.

This shows a 15% chance of severe winds within 25 miles of any given point in the yellow shaded area

In the brown shaded area here, there is a 5% chance for severe hail (1'' in diameter) withing 25 miles of any given point.